The Spread Maps Request an invite

Which weather model is most accurate in Dallas?

Forecast Highs Lows Rain Model accuracy

Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · trailing 30 days, through Fri Oct 16

Every day, The Spread archives what each major weather model predicted for Dallas at 1-, 3-, and 7-day leads, then scores those forecasts against the DAL observations once the day has happened. This page covers the trailing 30 days (2026-09-17 to 2026-10-16), for daily high temperature.

One day out, NOAA GFS has been most accurate (typical miss 1.71°F); at three days, NOAA GFS (2.37°F); at seven days, too close to call.

The largest standing bias belongs to ECMWF AIFS (AI), which has run cool by about 3.7°F at 3-day lead over this window.

Dallas's full forecast, every model day by day, with the record on this page beside it. Request an invite; it's free during the beta.

The scoreboard

Typical miss (MAE) in °F with the bias in parentheses. Bias is the mean signed error of the predicted daily high — positive means the model ran warm. A model's high is the warmest of its hourly values and the station's is the warmest it got at any moment, so a model's high reads a little cool, and its low a little warm, even on a day it gets every hour right. ECMWF IFS gives a value only every 3 hours (every 6 past day 6), and ECMWF AIFS (AI) and NOAA AIGFS (AI) only every 6, with the hours between filled in, so their highs read cooler still and their lows warmer. In the forecasts scored here GFS also steps to every 3 hours from day 5, ICON and GEM from day 4, and UKMO from day 3, every 6 by day 6. Days = scored days behind the 1-day number.

Model 1-day 3-day 7-day Days
NOAA GFS 1.7° (-0.1°) 2.4° (+0.4°) 5.8° (-0.9°) 29
UKMO (UK) 2.1° (-1.5°) 3.4° (-2.2°) — 29
DWD ICON 2.3° (-1.3°) 3.1° (-1.4°) — 29
GEM (Canada) 2.8° (-2.0°) 3.1° (-1.7°) 5.5° (-4.8°) 29
NOAA AIGFS (AI) 3.0° (-2.9°) 3.4° (-3.1°) 5.3° (-2.7°) 29
ECMWF IFS 3.3° (-2.3°) 3.5° (-2.0°) 5.8° (-3.1°) 29
ECMWF AIFS (AI) 3.7° (-3.5°) 4.1° (-3.7°) 5.8° (-4.8°) 29

Method, honestly

The Spread's Dallas point is the Love Field station (DAL), 5.5 mi from downtown, used for both forecasts and verifications. Each forecast is the last one The Spread archived on the day it was made, the forecast the model was showing at the time, not a reconstruction. A day the station did not report is left out. Truth is the thermometer at Love Field (DAL) — the station's own daily highs, a thermometer rather than a grid, and no correction applies: the thermometer is the truth outright. Rankings cover the models themselves; consensus products such as the NBM, itself a blend of models, are not scored here. A rolling 30-day window means these numbers move — that is the point.

Receipts — was the forecast right?

One page per settled date: what every model said as the day approached, what happened, and who was closest.

  • Fri Oct 16 14 days out the models said 69–79; it hit 67. AIGFS led (off 0.5°F); ECMWF ran 8°F warm.
  • Thu Oct 15 14 days out the models said 70–90; it hit 90. GFS led (off 0.3°F); AIFS ran 6°F cool.
  • Wed Oct 14 14 days out the models said 58–86; it hit 92. ECMWF led (off 0.6°F); GFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Tue Oct 13 14 days out the models said 64–81; it hit 95. ICON led (off 0.8°F); AIGFS ran 5°F cool.
  • Mon Oct 12 14 days out the models said 71–89; it hit 89. ECMWF led (off 0.0°F); AIFS ran 3°F cool.
  • Sun Oct 11 14 days out the models said 76–86; it hit 90. ICON led (off 0.5°F); AIFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Sat Oct 10 14 days out the models said 77–81; it hit 90. ICON led (off 0.1°F); AIFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Fri Oct 9 14 days out the models said 70–88; it hit 91. ICON led (off 1.6°F); ECMWF ran 7°F cool.
  • Thu Oct 8 14 days out the models said 68–85; it hit 90. GEM led (off 0.5°F); ECMWF ran 6°F cool.
  • Wed Oct 7 14 days out the models said 81–90; it hit 88. GFS led (off 1.7°F); ECMWF ran 6°F cool.
  • Tue Oct 6 13 days out the models said 74–86; it hit 87. GFS led (off 2.0°F); ECMWF ran 8°F cool.
  • Mon Oct 5 14 days out the models said 65–90; it hit 86. GFS led (off 2.8°F); ECMWF ran 8°F cool.
  • Sun Oct 4 14 days out the models said 75–94; it hit 78. AIFS led (off 0.6°F); UKMO ran 3°F warm.
  • Sat Oct 3 14 days out the models said 73–85; it hit 75. ECMWF led (off 0.4°F); AIGFS ran 3°F cool.
  • Fri Oct 2 14 days out the models said 79–93; it hit 81. GFS led (off 3.0°F); GEM ran 6°F cool.
  • Thu Oct 1 14 days out the models said 81–92; it hit 81. AIFS led (off 0.1°F); GEM ran 5°F cool.
  • Wed Sep 30 14 days out the models said 76–96; it hit 90. UKMO led (off 0.2°F); ICON ran 6°F warm.
  • Tue Sep 29 14 days out the models said 82–93; it hit 95. ECMWF led (off 0.4°F); AIGFS ran 2°F cool.
  • Mon Sep 28 14 days out the models said 84–99; it hit 94. GFS led (off 1.8°F); GEM ran 9°F cool.
  • Sun Sep 27 14 days out the models said 73–93; it hit 95. GFS led (off 0.1°F); AIFS ran 6°F cool.
  • Sat Sep 26 14 days out the models said 80–96; it hit 94. ECMWF led (off 0.8°F); AIGFS ran 5°F cool.
  • Fri Sep 25 14 days out the models said 79–100; it hit 92. UKMO led (off 1.0°F); AIFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Thu Sep 24 14 days out the models said 87–96; it hit 95. GFS led (off 0.1°F); AIFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Wed Sep 23 14 days out the models said 83–97; it hit 99. GFS led (off 0.1°F); AIGFS ran 6°F cool.
  • Tue Sep 22 14 days out the models said 73–101; it hit 98. GFS led (off 0.5°F); ICON ran 6°F cool.
  • Mon Sep 21 14 days out the models said 86–98; it hit 98. UKMO led (off 0.7°F); ECMWF ran 9°F cool.
  • Sun Sep 20 14 days out the models said 80–96; it hit 98. ICON led (off 0.2°F); AIFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Sat Sep 19 14 days out the models said 78–99; it hit 97. ECMWF led (off 0.3°F); GFS ran 3°F warm.
  • Fri Sep 18 14 days out the models said 92–99; it hit 98. ICON led (off 0.6°F); GFS ran 4°F warm.
  • Thu Sep 17 14 days out the models said 85–105; it hit 100. GFS led (off 0.4°F); UKMO ran 6°F cool.
  • Wed Sep 16 14 days out the models said 86–108; it hit 99. AIFS led (off 0.3°F).
  • Tue Sep 15 14 days out the models said 89–100; it hit 100. ICON led (off 0.4°F); GFS ran 2°F warm.
  • Mon Sep 14 14 days out the models said 94–102; it hit 100. ECMWF led (off 0.5°F).
  • Sun Sep 13 14 days out the models said 88–106; it hit 101. ICON led (off 0.2°F); AIFS ran 3°F cool.
  • Sat Sep 12 14 days out the models said 89–100; it hit 102. ICON led (off 0.2°F); AIFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Fri Sep 11 14 days out the models said 92–106; it hit 100. GFS led (off 0.9°F); ICON ran 8°F cool.
  • Thu Sep 10 14 days out the models said 97–104; it hit 100. ECMWF led (off 0.7°F); AIFS ran 6°F cool.
  • Wed Sep 9 14 days out the models said 99–106; it hit 101. GFS led (off 0.1°F); UKMO ran 3°F cool.
  • Tue Sep 8 14 days out the models said 83–97; it hit 101. ICON led (off 0.1°F); AIGFS ran 2°F cool.
  • Mon Sep 7 14 days out the models said 86–103; it hit 101. UKMO led (off 0.4°F); AIGFS ran 3°F cool.
  • Sun Sep 6 14 days out the models said 87–109; it hit 100. ICON led (off 0.1°F); AIGFS ran 3°F cool.
  • Sat Sep 5 14 days out the models said 98–106; it hit 100. GFS led (off 0.2°F); AIFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Fri Sep 4 14 days out the models said 95–107; it hit 99. ECMWF led (off 1.6°F); UKMO ran 10°F cool.
  • Thu Sep 3 14 days out the models said 99–106; it hit 92. UKMO led (off 1.1°F); ICON ran 8°F cool.
  • Wed Sep 2 13 days out the models said 98–105; it hit 101. GFS led (off 0.4°F); AIFS ran 6°F cool.
  • Tue Sep 1 12 days out the models said 98–105; it hit 100. GEM led (off 0.2°F); GFS ran 3°F warm.
  • Mon Aug 31 11 days out the models said 99–105; it hit 100. AIFS led (off 0.4°F); GFS ran 4°F warm.
  • Sun Aug 30 10 days out the models said 101–106; it hit 101. ECMWF led (off 0.2°F); GFS ran 3°F warm.
  • Sat Aug 29 9 days out the models said 98–106; it hit 102. ECMWF led (off 0.3°F).
  • Fri Aug 28 8 days out the models said 94–106; it hit 102. AIGFS led (off 0.9°F); GEM ran 3°F cool.
  • Thu Aug 27 7 days out the models said 98–106; it hit 101. GEM led (off 0.4°F); AIFS ran 6°F cool.
  • Wed Aug 26 6 days out the models said 100–107; it hit 101. GFS led (off 0.2°F); ICON ran 5°F warm.
  • Tue Aug 25 5 days out the models said 104–112; it hit 101. GEM led (off 1.5°F); UKMO ran 7°F warm.
  • Mon Aug 24 4 days out the models said 103–110; it hit 108. AIGFS led (off 0.4°F); AIFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Tue Aug 18 14 days out the models said 98–111; it hit 106. ECMWF led (off 0.0°F); GEM ran 3°F cool.
  • Mon Aug 17 14 days out the models said 98–106; it hit 106. GFS led (off 0.0°F); UKMO ran 3°F cool.
  • Sun Aug 16 14 days out the models said 97–106; it hit 104. AIGFS led (off 0.3°F); GEM ran 4°F cool.
  • Sat Aug 15 14 days out the models said 98–107; it hit 102. ICON led (off 0.1°F); GEM ran 2°F cool.
  • Fri Aug 14 14 days out the models said 102–108; it hit 101. AIGFS led (off 0.1°F); GFS ran 2°F cool.
  • Thu Aug 13 14 days out the models said 95–105; it hit 102. AIGFS led (off 0.0°F); GEM ran 2°F cool.
  • Wed Aug 12 14 days out the models said 92–110; it hit 102. AIGFS led (off 0.2°F); GEM ran 2°F cool.
  • Tue Aug 11 14 days out the models said 102–108; it hit 99. GFS led (off 0.2°F); ECMWF ran 4°F warm.
  • Mon Aug 10 14 days out the models said 99–105; it hit 99. AIFS led (off 0.1°F).
  • Sun Aug 9 14 days out the models said 97–105; it hit 97. UKMO led (off 1.6°F); ICON ran 4°F warm.
  • Sat Aug 8 13 days out the models said 96–103; it hit 101. ICON led (off 0.2°F); AIFS ran 5°F cool.
  • Fri Aug 7 12 days out the models said 91–108; it hit 102. ECMWF led (off 0.2°F); AIFS ran 3°F cool.
  • Thu Aug 6 11 days out the models said 88–107; it hit 101. UKMO led (off 0.1°F).
  • Wed Aug 5 10 days out the models said 91–104; it hit 102. ICON led (off 0.4°F); GEM ran 2°F cool.
  • Tue Aug 4 9 days out the models said 94–103; it hit 102. AIFS led (off 0.1°F); ECMWF ran 2°F warm.
  • Mon Aug 3 8 days out the models said 94–101; it hit 102. ECMWF led (off 0.5°F); GEM ran 4°F cool.
  • Sun Aug 2 7 days out the models said 91–98; it hit 97. GFS led (off 0.4°F).
  • Sat Aug 1 6 days out the models said 97–109; it hit 97. ICON led (off 0.4°F); UKMO ran 4°F warm.
  • Fri Jul 31 5 days out the models said 98–109; it hit 103. ICON led (off 0.5°F); ECMWF ran 3°F warm.
  • Thu Jul 30 4 days out the models said 97–106; it hit 102. GFS led (off 0.1°F); AIFS ran 3°F cool.

Other cities

Atlanta, Georgia Berlin, State of Berlin Boston, Massachusetts Buffalo, New York Charlotte, North Carolina Chicago, Illinois Denver, Colorado Detroit, Michigan Houston, Texas London, England Los Angeles, California Miami, Florida Milan, Lombardy Minneapolis, Minnesota New Orleans, Louisiana New York, New York Oklahoma City, Oklahoma Orlando, Florida Paris, Île-de-France Region Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Phoenix, Arizona Salt Lake City, Utah San Antonio, Texas San Diego, California San Francisco, California Seattle, Washington St. Louis, Missouri Tampa, Florida Washington, District of Columbia

The Spread — the forecast spread — is in closed beta. These verification pages are public while the rest is gated.