Was the forecast right for Dallas on Fri Sep 11?
Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DAL observations
13 days out, 4 models put Dallas's Fri Sep 11 high anywhere from 93° to 101°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 99°. The day verified at 100° against the DAL observations — thunderstorms.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.5°. AIFS ran 5° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 11 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-27 | — | 98° | — | — | 90° | — | — | 90–98° |
| 14d · 2026-08-28 | 97° | 93° | — | — | 101° | — | — | 93–101° |
| 13d · 2026-08-29 | 101° | 95° | 101° | — | 93° | — | — | 93–101° |
| 12d · 2026-08-30 | 95° | 94° | 85° | — | 104° | — | — | 85–104° |
| 11d · 2026-08-31 | 98° | 97° | 87° | — | 105° | — | — | 87–105° |
| 10d · 2026-09-01 | 99° | 96° | 86° | — | 102° | — | — | 86–102° |
| 9d · 2026-09-02 | 100° | 95° | 90° | — | 96° | — | — | 90–100° |
| 8d · 2026-09-03 | 101° | 98° | 100° | 98° | 104° | — | — | 98–104° |
| 7d · 2026-09-04 | 93° | 100° | 101° | 99° | 104° | — | — | 93–104° |
| 6d · 2026-09-05 | 101° | 92° | 102° | 95° | 102° | 104° | — | 92–104° |
| 5d · 2026-09-06 | 100° | 94° | 103° | 100° | 92° | 108° | 97° | 92–108° |
| 4d · 2026-09-07 | 99° | 101° | 101° | 101° | 101° | 102° | 101° | 99–102° |
| 3d · 2026-09-08 | 98° | 98° | 101° | 99° | 96° | 100° | 98° | 96–101° |
| 2d · 2026-09-09 | 94° | 95° | 98° | 98° | 95° | 100° | 98° | 94–100° |
| 1d · 2026-09-10 | 93° | 94° | 93° | 98° | 97° | 98° | 96° | 93–98° |
| 0d · 2026-09-11 | 95° | 96° | 99° | 99° | 102° | 96° | 100° | 95–102° |
| actual | 100° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DAL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.