Was the forecast right for Dallas on Tue Aug 4?
Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
9 days out, 5 models put Dallas's Tue Aug 4 high anywhere from 94° to 103°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 101°. The day verified at 102° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — clear.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. ECMWF ran 2° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Aug 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9d · 2026-07-26 | 94° | 95° | 101° | 97° | 103° | — | — | 94–103° |
| 8d · 2026-07-27 | 93° | 94° | 102° | 99° | 99° | — | — | 93–102° |
| 7d · 2026-07-28 | 98° | 100° | 107° | 98° | 107° | — | — | 98–107° |
| 6d · 2026-07-29 | 98° | 100° | 103° | 96° | 105° | 101° | 99° | 96–105° |
| 5d · 2026-07-30 | 100° | 100° | 106° | 101° | 110° | 106° | 107° | 100–110° |
| 4d · 2026-07-31 | 100° | 100° | 107° | 100° | 110° | 102° | 105° | 100–110° |
| 3d · 2026-08-01 | 100° | 100° | 106° | 99° | 109° | 103° | 102° | 99–109° |
| 2d · 2026-08-02 | 101° | 101° | 104° | 100° | 108° | 101° | 101° | 100–108° |
| 1d · 2026-08-03 | 102° | 103° | 104° | 100° | 101° | 101° | 100° | 100–104° |
| actual | 102° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.