The Spread

Was the forecast right for Dallas on Tue Aug 4?

Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

8 days out, 5 models put Dallas's Tue Aug 4 high anywhere from 33° to 41°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 39°. The day verified at 39° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — clear.

GFS landed closest, off by 0.0°.

8 days out the models said 33–41; it hit 39. GFS led (off 0.0°C).
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Tue Aug 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
8d · 2026-07-27 33° 35° 39° 38° 41° — — 33–41°
7d · 2026-07-28 36° 37° 40° 36° 43° — — 36–43°
6d · 2026-07-29 37° 36° 40° 37° 41° 41° — 36–41°
5d · 2026-07-30 37° 38° 41° 37° 43° 38° 39° 37–43°
4d · 2026-07-31 38° 38° 42° 38° 43° 41° 42° 38–43°
3d · 2026-08-01 38° 37° 42° 38° 43° 39° 40° 37–43°
2d · 2026-08-02 38° 38° 40° 37° 43° 38° 38° 37–43°
1d · 2026-08-03 39° 38° 40° 38° 38° 38° 38° 38–40°
0d · 2026-08-04 39° 39° 39° 38° 39° 38° 38° 38–39°
actual 39°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.