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Was the forecast right for Dallas on Tue Aug 4?

Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

9 days out, 5 models put Dallas's Tue Aug 4 high anywhere from 34° to 40°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 38°. The day verified at 39° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — clear.

AIFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. ECMWF ran 1° warm.

9 days out the models said 34–40; it hit 39. AIFS led (off 0.1°C); ECMWF ran 1°C warm.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Tue Aug 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
9d · 2026-07-26 34° 35° 39° 36° 40° — — 34–40°
8d · 2026-07-27 34° 35° 39° 37° 37° — — 34–39°
7d · 2026-07-28 37° 38° 42° 37° 42° — — 37–42°
6d · 2026-07-29 36° 38° 40° 36° 41° 38° 37° 36–41°
5d · 2026-07-30 38° 38° 41° 38° 43° 41° 42° 38–43°
4d · 2026-07-31 38° 38° 42° 38° 44° 39° 40° 38–44°
3d · 2026-08-01 38° 38° 41° 37° 43° 39° 39° 37–43°
2d · 2026-08-02 38° 38° 40° 38° 42° 38° 38° 38–42°
1d · 2026-08-03 39° 39° 40° 38° 38° 38° 38° 38–40°
actual 39°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.