Was the forecast right for Dallas on Tue Sep 15?
Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DAL observations
13 days out, 4 models put Dallas's Tue Sep 15 high anywhere from 91° to 97°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 101°. The day verified at 100° against the DAL observations — drizzle.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. GFS ran 2° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 15 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-31 | — | 80° | — | — | 76° | — | — | 76–80° |
| 14d · 2026-09-01 | 94° | 98° | — | — | 97° | — | — | 94–98° |
| 13d · 2026-09-02 | 92° | 97° | 93° | — | 91° | — | — | 91–97° |
| 12d · 2026-09-03 | 99° | 92° | 92° | — | 104° | — | — | 92–104° |
| 11d · 2026-09-04 | 98° | 91° | 101° | — | 101° | — | — | 91–101° |
| 10d · 2026-09-05 | 98° | 93° | 97° | — | 98° | — | — | 93–98° |
| 9d · 2026-09-06 | 97° | 97° | 95° | — | 80° | — | — | 80–97° |
| 8d · 2026-09-07 | 100° | 98° | 100° | 96° | 91° | — | — | 91–100° |
| 7d · 2026-09-08 | 100° | 97° | 101° | 98° | 102° | — | — | 97–102° |
| 6d · 2026-09-09 | 98° | 98° | 100° | 99° | 101° | 102° | — | 98–102° |
| 5d · 2026-09-10 | 98° | 99° | 101° | 97° | 101° | 99° | 100° | 97–101° |
| 4d · 2026-09-11 | 99° | 98° | 100° | 98° | 102° | 100° | 101° | 98–102° |
| 3d · 2026-09-12 | 98° | 98° | 100° | 98° | 102° | 101° | 100° | 98–102° |
| 2d · 2026-09-13 | 99° | 98° | 101° | 98° | 102° | 100° | 100° | 98–102° |
| 1d · 2026-09-14 | 99° | 99° | 101° | 98° | 102° | 100° | 100° | 98–102° |
| 0d · 2026-09-15 | 100° | 99° | 102° | 99° | 102° | 101° | 101° | 99–102° |
| actual | 100° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DAL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.