Was the forecast right for Dallas on Sat Sep 19?
Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DAL observations
14 days out, 4 models put Dallas's Sat Sep 19 high anywhere from 78° to 99°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 97°. The day verified at 97° against the DAL observations — cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.3°. GFS ran 3° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 19 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-04 | — | 95° | — | — | 91° | — | — | 91–95° |
| 14d · 2026-09-05 | 97° | 78° | 99° | — | 96° | — | — | 78–99° |
| 13d · 2026-09-06 | 95° | 100° | 85° | — | 95° | — | — | 85–100° |
| 12d · 2026-09-07 | 77° | 85° | 96° | — | 90° | — | — | 77–96° |
| 11d · 2026-09-08 | 78° | 83° | 93° | — | 99° | — | — | 78–99° |
| 10d · 2026-09-09 | 97° | 77° | 89° | — | 87° | — | — | 77–97° |
| 9d · 2026-09-10 | 97° | 100° | 100° | — | 103° | — | — | 97–103° |
| 8d · 2026-09-11 | 98° | 98° | 99° | 97° | 104° | — | — | 97–104° |
| 7d · 2026-09-12 | 97° | 96° | 99° | 94° | 84° | — | — | 84–99° |
| 6d · 2026-09-13 | 96° | 95° | 98° | 94° | 102° | 99° | 96° | 94–102° |
| 5d · 2026-09-14 | 97° | 95° | 100° | 96° | 100° | 99° | 99° | 95–100° |
| 4d · 2026-09-15 | 96° | 95° | 100° | 96° | 100° | 100° | 99° | 95–100° |
| 3d · 2026-09-16 | 95° | 95° | 98° | 96° | 100° | 98° | 98° | 95–100° |
| 2d · 2026-09-17 | 95° | 95° | 97° | 95° | 100° | 98° | 97° | 95–100° |
| 1d · 2026-09-18 | 95° | 96° | 97° | 95° | 100° | 98° | 98° | 95–100° |
| actual | 97° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DAL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.