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Was the forecast right for Dallas on Sat Sep 19?

Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DAL observations

14 days out, 4 models put Dallas's Sat Sep 19 high anywhere from 26° to 37°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 36°. The day verified at 36° against the DAL observations — cloudy.

ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.2°. GFS ran 2° warm.

14 days out the models said 26–37; it hit 36. ECMWF led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 19 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-09-04 — 35° — — 33° — — 33–35°
14d · 2026-09-05 36° 26° 37° — 36° — — 26–37°
13d · 2026-09-06 35° 38° 30° — 35° — — 30–38°
12d · 2026-09-07 25° 29° 35° — 32° — — 25–35°
11d · 2026-09-08 26° 28° 34° — 37° — — 26–37°
10d · 2026-09-09 36° 25° 32° — 30° — — 25–36°
9d · 2026-09-10 36° 38° 38° — 40° — — 36–40°
8d · 2026-09-11 36° 37° 37° 36° 40° — — 36–40°
7d · 2026-09-12 36° 35° 37° 34° 29° — — 29–37°
6d · 2026-09-13 36° 35° 37° 34° 39° 37° 35° 34–39°
5d · 2026-09-14 36° 35° 38° 35° 38° 37° 37° 35–38°
4d · 2026-09-15 36° 35° 38° 35° 38° 38° 37° 35–38°
3d · 2026-09-16 35° 35° 37° 35° 38° 37° 36° 35–38°
2d · 2026-09-17 35° 35° 36° 35° 38° 37° 36° 35–38°
1d · 2026-09-18 35° 35° 36° 35° 38° 36° 36° 35–38°
actual 36°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DAL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.