Was the forecast right for Dallas on Fri Jul 31?
Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
5 days out, 7 models put Dallas's Fri Jul 31 high anywhere from 98° to 109°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 104°. The day verified at 103° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.5°. ECMWF ran 3° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Jul 31 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d · 2026-07-26 | 98° | 100° | 107° | 102° | 109° | 106° | 105° | 98–109° |
| 4d · 2026-07-27 | 101° | 105° | 107° | 102° | 108° | 104° | 104° | 101–108° |
| 3d · 2026-07-28 | 101° | 106° | 108° | 103° | 107° | 105° | 104° | 101–108° |
| 2d · 2026-07-29 | 101° | 104° | 106° | 101° | 107° | 104° | 104° | 101–107° |
| 1d · 2026-07-30 | 102° | 104° | 106° | 102° | 104° | 104° | 104° | 102–106° |
| actual | 103° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.