The Spread

Was the forecast right for Dallas on Fri Jul 31?

Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

4 days out, 7 models put Dallas's Fri Jul 31 high anywhere from 37° to 42°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 40°. The day verified at 39° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — cloudy.

AIFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. ECMWF ran 1° hot.

4 days out the models said 37–42; it hit 39. AIFS led (off 0.2°C); ECMWF ran 1°C hot.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Fri Jul 31 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
4d · 2026-07-27 37° 38° 41° 39° 42° 40° 40° 37–42°
3d · 2026-07-28 39° 40° 42° 39° 42° 41° 40° 39–42°
2d · 2026-07-29 38° 40° 42° 39° 42° 40° 40° 38–42°
1d · 2026-07-30 39° 39° 41° 39° 40° 39° 40° 39–41°
0d · 2026-07-31 39° 40° 41° 39° 40° 40° 40° 39–41°
actual 39°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.