Was the forecast right for Dallas on Fri Jul 31?

Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

5 days out, 7 models put Dallas's Fri Jul 31 high anywhere from 37° to 43°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 40°. The day verified at 39° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — cloudy.

ICON landed closest, off by 0.3°. ECMWF ran 2° warm.

5 days out the models said 37–43; it hit 39. ICON led (off 0.3°C); ECMWF ran 2°C warm. — The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Fri Jul 31 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead	AIFS	AIGFS	ECMWF	GEM	GFS	ICON	UKMO	Range
5d · 2026-07-26	37°	38°	42°	39°	43°	41°	41°	37–43°
4d · 2026-07-27	38°	41°	42°	39°	42°	40°	40°	38–42°
3d · 2026-07-28	38°	41°	42°	39°	42°	41°	40°	38–42°
2d · 2026-07-29	39°	40°	41°	38°	42°	40°	40°	38–42°
1d · 2026-07-30	39°	40°	41°	39°	40°	40°	40°	39–41°
actual								39°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.