Was the forecast right for Dallas on Thu Sep 10?
Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DAL observations
13 days out, 4 models put Dallas's Thu Sep 10 high anywhere from 90° to 100°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 99°. The day verified at 100° against the DAL observations — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.5°. AIFS ran 5° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 10 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-26 | — | 88° | — | — | 109° | — | — | 88–109° |
| 14d · 2026-08-27 | 101° | 99° | — | — | 104° | — | — | 99–104° |
| 13d · 2026-08-28 | 95° | 90° | 100° | — | 98° | — | — | 90–100° |
| 12d · 2026-08-29 | 99° | 99° | 100° | — | 90° | — | — | 90–100° |
| 11d · 2026-08-30 | 98° | 95° | 98° | — | 108° | — | — | 95–108° |
| 10d · 2026-08-31 | 96° | 96° | 97° | — | 105° | — | — | 96–105° |
| 9d · 2026-09-01 | 96° | 98° | 95° | — | 103° | — | — | 95–103° |
| 8d · 2026-09-02 | 99° | 96° | 94° | 93° | 85° | — | — | 85–99° |
| 7d · 2026-09-03 | 100° | 95° | 97° | 94° | 103° | — | — | 94–103° |
| 6d · 2026-09-04 | 98° | 98° | 99° | 98° | 103° | 98° | — | 98–103° |
| 5d · 2026-09-05 | 100° | 98° | 102° | 100° | 102° | 103° | 102° | 98–103° |
| 4d · 2026-09-06 | 99° | 93° | 101° | 101° | 97° | 105° | 100° | 93–105° |
| 3d · 2026-09-07 | 97° | 99° | 100° | 99° | 102° | 103° | 100° | 97–103° |
| 2d · 2026-09-08 | 95° | 98° | 101° | 98° | 101° | 101° | 97° | 95–101° |
| 1d · 2026-09-09 | 95° | 97° | 100° | 98° | 100° | 100° | 98° | 95–100° |
| 0d · 2026-09-10 | 95° | 97° | 99° | 99° | 100° | 97° | 99° | 95–100° |
| actual | 100° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DAL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.