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Was the forecast right for Dallas on Thu Sep 10?

Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DAL observations

14 days out, 4 models put Dallas's Thu Sep 10 high anywhere from 36° to 40°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 37°. The day verified at 38° against the DAL observations — drizzle.

ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.4°. AIFS ran 3° cool.

14 days out the models said 36–40; it hit 38. ECMWF led (off 0.4°C); AIFS ran 3°C cool.
The shareable card for this day: what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 10 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labeled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-26 — 36° — — 39° — — 36–39°
14d · 2026-08-27 37° 36° 37° — 40° — — 36–40°
13d · 2026-08-28 38° 36° 36° — 40° — — 36–40°
12d · 2026-08-29 38° 33° 37° — 40° — — 33–40°
11d · 2026-08-30 35° 34° 35° — 40° — — 34–40°
10d · 2026-08-31 34° 35° 38° — 40° — — 34–40°
9d · 2026-09-01 35° 38° 36° 37° 41° — — 35–41°
8d · 2026-09-02 36° 35° 37° 37° 38° — — 35–38°
7d · 2026-09-03 38° 37° 39° 37° 39° — — 37–39°
6d · 2026-09-04 37° 37° 38° 38° 38° 39° 38° 37–39°
5d · 2026-09-05 38° 37° 40° 38° 40° 40° 38° 37–40°
4d · 2026-09-06 37° 37° 38° 38° 40° 40° 38° 37–40°
3d · 2026-09-07 35° 37° 38° 37° 39° 38° 38° 35–39°
2d · 2026-09-08 35° 37° 38° 37° 38° 38° 37° 35–38°
1d · 2026-09-09 35° 36° 37° 37° 38° 37° 37° 35–38°
actual 38°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DAL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this day was verified, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; verified days exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.