Was the forecast right for Dallas on Sun Oct 4?
Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DAL observations
14 days out, 4 models put Dallas's Sun Oct 4 high anywhere from 75° to 94°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 79°. The day verified at 78° against the DAL observations, with 0.16 in of precipitation — showers.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.6°. UKMO ran 3° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-19 | — | 73° | — | — | 84° | — | — | 73–84° |
| 14d · 2026-09-20 | 75° | 86° | 94° | — | 85° | — | — | 75–94° |
| 13d · 2026-09-21 | 88° | 80° | 76° | — | 67° | — | — | 67–88° |
| 12d · 2026-09-22 | 86° | 70° | 83° | — | 90° | — | — | 70–90° |
| 11d · 2026-09-23 | 80° | 85° | 77° | — | 75° | — | — | 75–85° |
| 10d · 2026-09-24 | 80° | 90° | 79° | — | 83° | — | — | 79–90° |
| 9d · 2026-09-25 | 78° | 90° | 79° | 84° | 97° | — | — | 78–97° |
| 8d · 2026-09-26 | 82° | 82° | 74° | 76° | 82° | — | — | 74–82° |
| 7d · 2026-09-27 | 78° | 75° | 80° | 72° | 83° | — | — | 72–83° |
| 6d · 2026-09-28 | 80° | 81° | 79° | 68° | 84° | 81° | 79° | 68–84° |
| 5d · 2026-09-29 | 82° | 84° | 81° | 78° | 81° | 79° | 84° | 78–84° |
| 4d · 2026-09-30 | 82° | 84° | 78° | 80° | 84° | 83° | 82° | 78–84° |
| 3d · 2026-10-01 | 80° | 81° | 80° | 82° | 78° | 78° | 83° | 78–83° |
| 2d · 2026-10-02 | 79° | 81° | 80° | 79° | 80° | 74° | 82° | 74–82° |
| 1d · 2026-10-03 | 79° | 79° | 79° | 79° | 80° | 79° | 81° | 79–81° |
| actual | 78° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DAL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.