Was the forecast right for Dallas on Sun Oct 4?
Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DAL observations
14 days out, 4 models put Dallas's Sun Oct 4 high anywhere from 24° to 35°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 26°. The day verified at 26° against the DAL observations, with 4.1 mm of precipitation — showers.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.3°. UKMO ran 2° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-19 | — | 23° | — | — | 29° | — | — | 23–29° |
| 14d · 2026-09-20 | 24° | 30° | 35° | — | 29° | — | — | 24–35° |
| 13d · 2026-09-21 | 31° | 26° | 24° | — | 20° | — | — | 20–31° |
| 12d · 2026-09-22 | 30° | 21° | 28° | — | 32° | — | — | 21–32° |
| 11d · 2026-09-23 | 27° | 29° | 25° | — | 24° | — | — | 24–29° |
| 10d · 2026-09-24 | 27° | 32° | 26° | — | 28° | — | — | 26–32° |
| 9d · 2026-09-25 | 26° | 32° | 26° | 29° | 36° | — | — | 26–36° |
| 8d · 2026-09-26 | 28° | 28° | 23° | 25° | 28° | — | — | 23–28° |
| 7d · 2026-09-27 | 26° | 24° | 27° | 22° | 28° | — | — | 22–28° |
| 6d · 2026-09-28 | 27° | 27° | 26° | 20° | 29° | 27° | 26° | 20–29° |
| 5d · 2026-09-29 | 28° | 29° | 27° | 26° | 27° | 26° | 29° | 26–29° |
| 4d · 2026-09-30 | 28° | 29° | 25° | 26° | 29° | 28° | 28° | 25–29° |
| 3d · 2026-10-01 | 27° | 27° | 27° | 28° | 26° | 25° | 28° | 25–28° |
| 2d · 2026-10-02 | 26° | 27° | 27° | 26° | 27° | 23° | 28° | 23–28° |
| 1d · 2026-10-03 | 26° | 26° | 26° | 26° | 27° | 26° | 27° | 26–27° |
| actual | 26° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DAL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.