Was the forecast right for Dallas on Thu Oct 1?
Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DAL observations
14 days out, 4 models put Dallas's Thu Oct 1 high anywhere from 81° to 92°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 80°. The day verified at 81° against the DAL observations, with 2.99 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. GEM ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-16 | — | 78° | — | — | 98° | — | — | 78–98° |
| 14d · 2026-09-17 | 85° | 90° | 81° | — | 92° | — | — | 81–92° |
| 13d · 2026-09-18 | 88° | 83° | 85° | — | 91° | — | — | 83–91° |
| 12d · 2026-09-19 | 79° | 79° | 79° | — | 77° | — | — | 77–79° |
| 11d · 2026-09-20 | 80° | 80° | 82° | — | 92° | — | — | 80–92° |
| 10d · 2026-09-21 | 91° | 78° | 84° | — | 88° | — | — | 78–91° |
| 9d · 2026-09-22 | 76° | 66° | 79° | 78° | 91° | — | — | 66–91° |
| 8d · 2026-09-23 | 89° | 90° | 79° | 78° | 82° | — | — | 78–90° |
| 7d · 2026-09-24 | 88° | 91° | 88° | 76° | 96° | — | — | 76–96° |
| 6d · 2026-09-25 | 80° | 88° | 89° | 75° | 85° | 95° | 86° | 75–95° |
| 5d · 2026-09-26 | 83° | 80° | 89° | 76° | 77° | 78° | 83° | 76–89° |
| 4d · 2026-09-27 | 83° | 78° | 84° | 77° | 80° | 79° | 83° | 77–84° |
| 3d · 2026-09-28 | 82° | 80° | 83° | 82° | 85° | 86° | 80° | 80–86° |
| 2d · 2026-09-29 | 82° | 80° | 82° | 86° | 81° | 82° | 81° | 80–86° |
| 1d · 2026-09-30 | 81° | 80° | 79° | 76° | 80° | 79° | 81° | 76–81° |
| actual | 81° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DAL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.