Was the forecast right for Dallas on Wed Oct 7?
Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DAL observations
14 days out, 4 models put Dallas's Wed Oct 7 high anywhere from 81° to 90°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 84°. The day verified at 88° against the DAL observations — clear.
GFS landed closest, off by 1.7°. ECMWF ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Oct 7 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-22 | — | 81° | — | — | 85° | — | — | 81–85° |
| 14d · 2026-09-23 | 86° | 90° | 88° | — | 81° | — | — | 81–90° |
| 13d · 2026-09-24 | 80° | 64° | 74° | — | 77° | — | — | 64–80° |
| 12d · 2026-09-25 | 79° | 70° | 86° | — | 80° | — | — | 70–86° |
| 11d · 2026-09-26 | 85° | 71° | 73° | — | 80° | — | — | 71–85° |
| 10d · 2026-09-27 | 81° | 80° | 86° | — | 67° | — | — | 67–86° |
| 9d · 2026-09-28 | 79° | 80° | 82° | 79° | 79° | — | — | 79–82° |
| 8d · 2026-09-29 | 82° | 80° | 74° | 84° | 80° | — | — | 74–84° |
| 7d · 2026-09-30 | 84° | 82° | 78° | 81° | 80° | — | — | 78–84° |
| 6d · 2026-10-01 | 82° | 83° | 80° | 85° | 88° | 82° | 83° | 80–88° |
| 5d · 2026-10-02 | 83° | 83° | 80° | 83° | 86° | 80° | 81° | 80–86° |
| 4d · 2026-10-03 | 83° | 84° | 79° | 83° | 88° | 80° | 82° | 79–88° |
| 3d · 2026-10-04 | 82° | 85° | 80° | 86° | 89° | 80° | 80° | 80–89° |
| 2d · 2026-10-05 | 84° | 85° | 80° | 85° | 87° | 83° | 82° | 80–87° |
| 1d · 2026-10-06 | 84° | 85° | 82° | 85° | 86° | 84° | 84° | 82–86° |
| actual | 88° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DAL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.