Was the forecast right for Dallas on Tue Oct 20?
Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DAL observations
13 days out, 4 models put Dallas's Tue Oct 20 high anywhere from 72° to 79°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 78°. The day verified at 80° against the DAL observations — cloudy.
AIFS landed closest, off by 1.1°. AIGFS ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Oct 20 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-05 | — | 82° | — | — | 77° | — | — | 77–82° |
| 14d · 2026-10-06 | 75° | 81° | — | — | 81° | — | — | 75–81° |
| 13d · 2026-10-07 | 75° | 73° | 79° | — | 72° | — | — | 72–79° |
| 12d · 2026-10-08 | 66° | 75° | 68° | — | 60° | — | — | 60–75° |
| 11d · 2026-10-09 | 78° | 80° | 79° | — | 77° | — | — | 77–80° |
| 10d · 2026-10-10 | 78° | 69° | 79° | — | 70° | — | — | 69–79° |
| 9d · 2026-10-11 | 74° | 76° | 74° | 80° | 84° | — | — | 74–84° |
| 8d · 2026-10-12 | — | 83° | 83° | 68° | 81° | — | — | 68–83° |
| 7d · 2026-10-13 | 74° | 77° | 81° | 80° | 82° | — | — | 74–82° |
| 6d · 2026-10-14 | 76° | 74° | 79° | 75° | 81° | 79° | 75° | 74–81° |
| 5d · 2026-10-15 | 77° | 77° | 78° | 75° | 78° | 78° | 74° | 74–78° |
| 4d · 2026-10-16 | 78° | 75° | 79° | 75° | 78° | 78° | 76° | 75–79° |
| 3d · 2026-10-17 | 78° | 75° | 77° | 76° | 78° | 78° | 74° | 74–78° |
| 2d · 2026-10-18 | 78° | 74° | 78° | 78° | 78° | 78° | 76° | 74–78° |
| 1d · 2026-10-19 | 79° | 75° | 78° | 77° | 78° | 78° | 76° | 75–79° |
| actual | 80° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DAL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.