Which weather model is most accurate in Miami?
Miami, Florida · daily high temperature in °F · trailing 30 days · refreshed at most every 6 hours
Every day, The Spread archives what each major weather model predicted for Miami at 1-, 3-, and 7-day leads, then scores those forecasts against the MIA observations once the day has happened. This page covers the trailing 30 days (2026-08-04 to 2026-09-02), for daily high temperature.
One day out, too close to call; at three days, too close to call; at seven days, too close to call.
The largest standing bias belongs to ECMWF AIFS (AI), which has run cool by about 4.72°F at 3-day lead over this window.
The Spread's own bias-corrected blend scored a 0.98°F typical miss at one day. Its corrections come from the same window it is scored on (in-sample), so read it as a ceiling, not a promise.
The scoreboard
Typical miss (MAE) in °F with the signed bias in parentheses — positive bias means the model ran warm. Days = scored days behind the 1-day number.
| Model | 1-day | 3-day | 7-day | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UKMO (UK) | 1.3° (-0.2°) | 1.8° (-1.1°) | — | 30 |
| DWD ICON | 1.4° (-0.6°) | 1.8° (-0.7°) | — | 30 |
| NOAA AIGFS (AI) | 1.6° (-0.9°) | 1.7° (-0.8°) | 1.8° (-1.3°) | 30 |
| GEM (Canada) | 1.7° (-0.3°) | 1.8° (-0.6°) | 2.1° (-0.7°) | 30 |
| NOAA GFS | 1.8° (+1.6°) | 1.6° (+1.3°) | 1.7° (+0.5°) | 30 |
| ECMWF IFS | 3.7° (-3.7°) | 3.9° (-3.9°) | 4.4° (-4.3°) | 30 |
| ECMWF AIFS (AI) | 4.7° (-4.7°) | 4.7° (-4.7°) | 5.1° (-5.0°) | 30 |
| NBM (US blend) | 2.1° (-1.7°) | 2.6° (-2.4°) | 2.7° (-2.3°) | 30 |
| Blended (bias-corrected) | 1.0° (-0.0°) | 1.1° (+0.0°) | 1.2° (+0.0°) | 30 |
Method, honestly
The Spread's Miami point is the Miami Intl station (MIA), 8 mi from downtown, used for both forecasts and verifications. Forecasts come from each model's actual archived runs via Open-Meteo's Previous Runs API — what the model said at the time, not a reconstruction. Truth is MIA observations — the station's own daily highs, a thermometer rather than a grid, and no correction applies: the thermometer is the truth outright. Rankings cover the models themselves; the two consensus products at the bottom of the table — NBM, which is itself a blend of models, and The Spread's own bias-corrected blend — are shown for comparison, never ranked or named "most accurate" here. The blend's corrections come from the same trailing window it is scored on (in-sample), so treat its score as a ceiling. A rolling 30-day window means these numbers move — that is the point.
Receipts — was the forecast right?
One page per settled date: what every model said as the day approached, what happened, and who was closest.
- Tue Sep 1 10 days out the models said 84–93; it hit 89. ECMWF led (off 1.5°F); GFS ran 6°F hot.
- Mon Aug 31 9 days out the models said 84–93; it hit 91. ICON led (off 0.5°F); GEM ran 6°F cold.
- Sun Aug 30 8 days out the models said 84–92; it hit 91. GEM led (off 0.2°F); AIFS ran 5°F cold.
- Sat Aug 29 7 days out the models said 86–93; it hit 85. AIFS led (off 0.1°F); GFS ran 8°F hot.
- Fri Aug 28 6 days out the models said 86–94; it hit 93. UKMO led (off 0.2°F); GEM ran 6°F cold.
- Thu Aug 27 5 days out the models said 86–93; it hit 93. GFS led (off 0.4°F); AIFS ran 5°F cold.
- Wed Aug 26 4 days out the models said 85–93; it hit 92. GEM led (off 0.5°F); AIFS ran 6°F cold.
- Tue Aug 25 3 days out the models said 86–93; it hit 92. UKMO led (off 0.7°F); AIFS ran 4°F cold.
- Wed Aug 19 13 days out the models said 87–91; it hit 96. ICON led (off 1.1°F); AIFS ran 4°F cold.
- Tue Aug 18 13 days out the models said 88–92; it hit 100. AIGFS led (off 0.5°F); AIFS ran 6°F cold.
- Mon Aug 17 13 days out the models said 89–92; it hit 95. AIGFS led (off 0.1°F); AIFS ran 4°F cold.
- Sun Aug 16 13 days out the models said 86–90; it hit 94. UKMO led (off 1.4°F); AIFS ran 5°F cold.
- Sat Aug 15 13 days out the models said 87–90; it hit 95. UKMO led (off 3.2°F); AIFS ran 5°F cold.
- Fri Aug 14 13 days out the models said 89–91; it hit 91. GFS led (off 0.2°F); AIFS ran 3°F cold.
- Thu Aug 13 13 days out the models said 88–90; it hit 91. GFS led (off 0.1°F); AIFS ran 3°F cold.
- Wed Aug 12 13 days out the models said 88–91; it hit 93. ICON led (off 0.7°F); AIFS ran 4°F cold.
- Tue Aug 11 13 days out the models said 89–91; it hit 91. GEM led (off 0.5°F); AIFS ran 2°F cold.
- Mon Aug 10 13 days out the models said 83–92; it hit 90. GEM led (off 0.3°F).
- Sun Aug 9 13 days out the models said 83–91; it hit 90. AIGFS led (off 0.2°F); AIFS ran 2°F cold.
- Sat Aug 8 12 days out the models said 85–91; it hit 89. AIFS led (off 0.0°F); UKMO ran 2°F hot.
- Fri Aug 7 11 days out the models said 86–92; it hit 88. ICON led (off 0.2°F); ECMWF ran 3°F cold.
- Thu Aug 6 10 days out the models said 87–90; it hit 86. GFS led (off 1.0°F); UKMO ran 4°F hot.
- Wed Aug 5 9 days out the models said 85–89; it hit 86. GFS led (off 0.4°F); AIFS ran 4°F cold.
- Tue Aug 4 8 days out the models said 86–90; it hit 88. AIGFS led (off 0.9°F); UKMO ran 3°F hot.
- Mon Aug 3 7 days out the models said 87–92; it hit 89. ICON led (off 0.0°F); GFS ran 3°F cold.
- Sun Aug 2 6 days out the models said 89–92; it hit 89. GEM led (off 0.7°F); GFS ran 4°F cold.
- Sat Aug 1 5 days out the models said 88–94; it hit 91. GEM led (off 0.2°F); AIGFS ran 4°F hot.
- Fri Jul 31 4 days out the models said 90–97; it hit 94. ECMWF led (off 0.3°F); GEM ran 6°F cold.
- Thu Jul 30 3 days out the models said 91–98; it hit 98. AIGFS led (off 0.7°F); AIFS ran 7°F cold.
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The Spread — the forecast spread — is in closed beta. These verification pages are public while the rest is gated.