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Which weather model is most accurate in Miami?

Forecast Highs Lows Rain Model accuracy

Miami, Florida · daily high temperature in °F · trailing 30 days, through Fri Oct 16

Every day, The Spread archives what each major weather model predicted for Miami at 1-, 3-, and 7-day leads, then scores those forecasts against the MIA observations once the day has happened. This page covers the trailing 30 days (2026-09-17 to 2026-10-16), for daily high temperature.

One day out, too close to call; at three days, too close to call; at seven days, NOAA AIGFS (AI) (1.86°F).

The largest standing bias belongs to ECMWF IFS, which has run cool by about 4.19°F at 3-day lead over this window.

Miami's full forecast, every model day by day, with the record on this page beside it. Request an invite; it's free during the beta.

The scoreboard

Typical miss (MAE) in °F with the bias in parentheses. Bias is the mean signed error of the predicted daily high — positive means the model ran warm. A model's high is the warmest of its hourly values and the station's is the warmest it got at any moment, so a model's high reads a little cool, and its low a little warm, even on a day it gets every hour right. ECMWF IFS gives a value only every 3 hours (every 6 past day 6), and ECMWF AIFS (AI) and NOAA AIGFS (AI) only every 6, with the hours between filled in, so their highs read cooler still and their lows warmer. In the forecasts scored here GFS also steps to every 3 hours from day 5, ICON and GEM from day 4, and UKMO from day 3, every 6 by day 6. Days = scored days behind the 1-day number.

Model 1-day 3-day 7-day Days
NOAA GFS 1.7° (+0.8°) 1.8° (+1.1°) 2.3° (+1.2°) 29
NOAA AIGFS (AI) 1.7° (-1.5°) 1.6° (-0.9°) 1.9° (-1.2°) 29
UKMO (UK) 1.8° (-1.1°) 2.1° (-1.5°) — 29
DWD ICON 2.1° (-1.5°) 1.8° (-1.1°) — 29
GEM (Canada) 3.4° (-3.2°) 2.4° (-0.7°) 2.7° (-1.5°) 29
ECMWF IFS 3.5° (-3.5°) 4.2° (-4.2°) 4.5° (-4.5°) 29
ECMWF AIFS (AI) 4.0° (-3.9°) 3.9° (-3.9°) 4.2° (-4.1°) 29

Method, honestly

The Spread's Miami point is the Miami International station (MIA), 8 mi from downtown, used for both forecasts and verifications. Each forecast is the last one The Spread archived on the day it was made, the forecast the model was showing at the time, not a reconstruction. A day the station did not report is left out. Truth is the thermometer at Miami International (MIA) — the station's own daily highs, a thermometer rather than a grid, and no correction applies: the thermometer is the truth outright. Rankings cover the models themselves; consensus products such as the NBM, itself a blend of models, are not scored here. A rolling 30-day window means these numbers move — that is the point.

Receipts — was the forecast right?

One page per settled date: what every model said as the day approached, what happened, and who was closest.

  • Fri Oct 16 14 days out the models said 82–91; it hit 90. GFS led (off 0.1°F); AIFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Thu Oct 15 14 days out the models said 78–89; it hit 90. GFS led (off 0.4°F); AIFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Wed Oct 14 14 days out the models said 85–92; it hit 88. GFS led (off 0.2°F); ECMWF ran 4°F cool.
  • Tue Oct 13 14 days out the models said 86–91; it hit 89. GFS led (off 0.6°F); ECMWF ran 2°F cool.
  • Mon Oct 12 14 days out the models said 78–88; it hit 90. GEM led (off 0.2°F); AIFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Sun Oct 11 14 days out the models said 81–87; it hit 90. ICON led (off 0.0°F); ECMWF ran 3°F cool.
  • Sat Oct 10 14 days out the models said 82–89; it hit 91. GEM led (off 0.1°F); UKMO ran 4°F cool.
  • Fri Oct 9 14 days out the models said 81–88; it hit 90. GEM led (off 0.2°F); AIFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Thu Oct 8 14 days out the models said 79–86; it hit 90. UKMO led (off 0.3°F); GEM ran 5°F cool.
  • Wed Oct 7 14 days out the models said 80–88; it hit 90. UKMO led (off 0.3°F); GEM ran 5°F cool.
  • Tue Oct 6 13 days out the models said 85–93; it hit 90. GFS led (off 1.2°F); GEM ran 7°F cool.
  • Mon Oct 5 14 days out the models said 81–92; it hit 90. UKMO led (off 0.2°F); GEM ran 5°F cool.
  • Sun Oct 4 14 days out the models said 81–90; it hit 90. GFS led (off 0.1°F); GEM ran 5°F cool.
  • Sat Oct 3 14 days out the models said 79–91; it hit 87. ICON led (off 0.0°F); GEM ran 2°F cool.
  • Fri Oct 2 14 days out the models said 81–90; it hit 88. ICON led (off 0.2°F); AIFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Thu Oct 1 14 days out the models said 79–85; it hit 83. ICON led (off 0.3°F); GEM ran 3°F cool.
  • Wed Sep 30 14 days out the models said 81–90; it hit 85. ICON led (off 0.5°F); AIFS ran 5°F cool.
  • Tue Sep 29 14 days out the models said 82–90; it hit 85. UKMO led (off 1.5°F); AIFS ran 5°F cool.
  • Mon Sep 28 14 days out the models said 83–88; it hit 90. AIGFS led (off 0.8°F); GEM ran 7°F cool.
  • Sun Sep 27 14 days out the models said 83–91; it hit 89. GFS led (off 0.4°F); GEM ran 6°F cool.
  • Sat Sep 26 14 days out the models said 83–90; it hit 88. AIGFS led (off 0.5°F); GEM ran 5°F cool.
  • Fri Sep 25 14 days out the models said 84–90; it hit 91. GFS led (off 0.2°F); GEM ran 8°F cool.
  • Thu Sep 24 14 days out the models said 82–91; it hit 91. UKMO led (off 1.8°F); GEM ran 6°F cool.
  • Wed Sep 23 14 days out the models said 81–88; it hit 83. ECMWF led (off 0.3°F); ICON ran 5°F warm.
  • Tue Sep 22 14 days out the models said 85–90; it hit 89. AIGFS led (off 2.7°F); UKMO ran 6°F cool.
  • Mon Sep 21 14 days out the models said 84–92; it hit 88. AIGFS led (off 0.1°F); ECMWF ran 6°F cool.
  • Sun Sep 20 14 days out the models said 85–93; it hit 90. AIGFS led (off 1.0°F); AIFS ran 6°F cool.
  • Sat Sep 19 14 days out the models said 86–90; it hit 90. GFS led (off 2.3°F); AIFS ran 7°F cool.
  • Fri Sep 18 13 days out the models said 86–92; it hit 90. UKMO led (off 1.1°F); AIFS ran 7°F cool.
  • Thu Sep 17 14 days out the models said 84–91; it hit 84. ECMWF led (off 0.3°F); GFS ran 5°F warm.
  • Wed Sep 16 14 days out the models said 81–92; it hit 92. GFS led (off 0.8°F); ECMWF ran 8°F cool.
  • Tue Sep 15 14 days out the models said 83–93; it hit 93. GFS led (off 0.4°F); GEM ran 6°F cool.
  • Mon Sep 14 14 days out the models said 85–91; it hit 90. UKMO led (off 0.5°F); GEM ran 5°F cool.
  • Sun Sep 13 14 days out the models said 85–96; it hit 92. ICON led (off 0.9°F); AIFS ran 8°F cool.
  • Sat Sep 12 14 days out the models said 84–96; it hit 93. GFS led (off 1.3°F); AIFS ran 9°F cool.
  • Fri Sep 11 14 days out the models said 85–92; it hit 88. GEM led (off 0.1°F); GFS ran 4°F warm.
  • Thu Sep 10 14 days out the models said 82–98; it hit 91. GEM led (off 0.2°F); AIFS ran 6°F cool.
  • Wed Sep 9 14 days out the models said 83–98; it hit 90. ICON led (off 0.1°F); ECMWF ran 5°F cool.
  • Tue Sep 8 14 days out the models said 87–93; it hit 92. ICON led (off 0.7°F); ECMWF ran 7°F cool.
  • Mon Sep 7 14 days out the models said 86–97; it hit 92. AIGFS led (off 1.2°F); ECMWF ran 7°F cool.
  • Sun Sep 6 14 days out the models said 88–96; it hit 92. AIGFS led (off 0.8°F); ECMWF ran 7°F cool.
  • Sat Sep 5 14 days out the models said 87–94; it hit 92. ICON led (off 0.9°F); ECMWF ran 6°F cool.
  • Fri Sep 4 14 days out the models said 86–94; it hit 91. UKMO led (off 1.9°F); ECMWF ran 7°F cool.
  • Thu Sep 3 13 days out the models said 87–92; it hit 93. GFS led (off 0.9°F); GEM ran 7°F cool.
  • Wed Sep 2 12 days out the models said 85–94; it hit 90. UKMO led (off 0.4°F); GFS ran 5°F warm.
  • Tue Sep 1 11 days out the models said 86–93; it hit 89. UKMO led (off 1.2°F); GFS ran 5°F warm.
  • Mon Aug 31 10 days out the models said 85–93; it hit 91. AIGFS led (off 1.1°F); AIFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Sun Aug 30 9 days out the models said 86–91; it hit 91. AIGFS led (off 0.0°F); AIFS ran 6°F cool.
  • Sat Aug 29 8 days out the models said 86–93; it hit 85. AIFS led (off 1.0°F); GFS ran 8°F warm.
  • Fri Aug 28 7 days out the models said 86–94; it hit 93. GEM led (off 1.0°F); AIFS ran 6°F cool.
  • Thu Aug 27 6 days out the models said 86–94; it hit 93. GFS led (off 0.0°F); AIFS ran 6°F cool.
  • Wed Aug 26 5 days out the models said 85–93; it hit 92. GFS led (off 0.1°F); AIFS ran 7°F cool.
  • Tue Aug 25 4 days out the models said 87–93; it hit 92. UKMO led (off 0.4°F); AIFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Wed Aug 19 14 days out the models said 87–91; it hit 96. AIGFS led (off 0.5°F); AIFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Tue Aug 18 14 days out the models said 88–89; it hit 100. UKMO led (off 0.2°F); AIFS ran 7°F cool.
  • Mon Aug 17 14 days out the models said 88–90; it hit 95. AIGFS led (off 0.8°F); AIFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Sun Aug 16 14 days out the models said 83–90; it hit 94. UKMO led (off 1.4°F); AIFS ran 5°F cool.
  • Sat Aug 15 14 days out the models said 88–90; it hit 95. ICON led (off 2.9°F); AIFS ran 6°F cool.
  • Fri Aug 14 14 days out the models said 89–91; it hit 91. ICON led (off 0.0°F); ECMWF ran 3°F cool.
  • Thu Aug 13 14 days out the models said 88–92; it hit 91. ICON led (off 0.2°F); AIFS ran 3°F cool.
  • Wed Aug 12 14 days out the models said 88–92; it hit 93. UKMO led (off 0.1°F); AIFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Tue Aug 11 14 days out the models said 89–91; it hit 91. ICON led (off 0.3°F); GFS ran 2°F cool.
  • Mon Aug 10 14 days out the models said 87–90; it hit 90. ICON led (off 0.4°F).
  • Sun Aug 9 14 days out the models said 87–88; it hit 90. UKMO led (off 0.0°F); ECMWF ran 4°F cool.
  • Sat Aug 8 13 days out the models said 84–88; it hit 89. ICON led (off 0.0°F); AIGFS ran 2°F warm.
  • Fri Aug 7 12 days out the models said 82–88; it hit 88. ICON led (off 0.3°F); UKMO ran 3°F warm.
  • Thu Aug 6 11 days out the models said 82–90; it hit 86. ICON led (off 0.9°F); GEM ran 3°F warm.
  • Wed Aug 5 10 days out the models said 85–90; it hit 86. ICON led (off 0.2°F); GEM ran 3°F warm.
  • Tue Aug 4 9 days out the models said 88–91; it hit 88. GEM led (off 0.1°F); UKMO ran 5°F warm.
  • Mon Aug 3 8 days out the models said 89–91; it hit 89. ICON led (off 1.4°F); UKMO ran 5°F warm.
  • Sun Aug 2 7 days out the models said 88–92; it hit 89. ICON led (off 0.5°F); GFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Sat Aug 1 6 days out the models said 87–98; it hit 91. GEM led (off 0.0°F); UKMO ran 5°F warm.
  • Fri Jul 31 5 days out the models said 88–94; it hit 94. ICON led (off 0.3°F); AIFS ran 4°F cool.
  • Thu Jul 30 4 days out the models said 91–96; it hit 98. AIGFS led (off 0.1°F); AIFS ran 7°F cool.

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