Was the forecast right for Miami on Tue Sep 15?
Miami, Florida · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MIA observations
13 days out, 4 models put Miami's Tue Sep 15 high anywhere from 84° to 92°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 89°. The day verified at 93° against the MIA observations — thunderstorms.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.5°. GEM ran 7° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 15 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Miami scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-31 | — | 90° | — | — | 94° | — | — | 90–94° |
| 14d · 2026-09-01 | 88° | 87° | — | — | 92° | — | — | 87–92° |
| 13d · 2026-09-02 | 88° | 89° | 84° | — | 92° | — | — | 84–92° |
| 12d · 2026-09-03 | 86° | 88° | 88° | — | 92° | — | — | 86–92° |
| 11d · 2026-09-04 | 88° | 88° | 86° | — | 93° | — | — | 86–93° |
| 10d · 2026-09-05 | 85° | 89° | 88° | — | 92° | — | — | 85–92° |
| 9d · 2026-09-06 | 84° | 88° | 81° | — | 92° | — | — | 81–92° |
| 8d · 2026-09-07 | 87° | 89° | 88° | 90° | 93° | — | — | 87–93° |
| 7d · 2026-09-08 | 87° | 89° | 87° | 90° | 90° | — | — | 87–90° |
| 6d · 2026-09-09 | 87° | 88° | 85° | 86° | 91° | 91° | — | 85–91° |
| 5d · 2026-09-10 | 87° | 89° | 88° | 90° | 92° | 88° | 91° | 87–92° |
| 4d · 2026-09-11 | 87° | 88° | 86° | 90° | 92° | 90° | 91° | 86–92° |
| 3d · 2026-09-12 | 86° | 90° | 86° | 90° | 94° | 89° | 85° | 85–94° |
| 2d · 2026-09-13 | 87° | 88° | 84° | 91° | 93° | 89° | 84° | 84–93° |
| 1d · 2026-09-14 | 87° | 90° | 87° | 87° | 92° | 90° | 87° | 87–92° |
| 0d · 2026-09-15 | 88° | 89° | 89° | 86° | 92° | 91° | 91° | 86–92° |
| actual | 93° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Miami — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MIA observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.