Was the forecast right for Miami on Sun Sep 20?
Miami, Florida · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MIA observations
13 days out, 4 models put Miami's Sun Sep 20 high anywhere from 83° to 94°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 86°. The day verified at 90° against the MIA observations, with 0.95 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
GFS landed closest, off by 2.3°. AIFS ran 7° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 20 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Miami scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-05 | — | 86° | — | — | 88° | — | — | 86–88° |
| 14d · 2026-09-06 | 86° | 86° | — | — | 86° | — | — | 86–86° |
| 13d · 2026-09-07 | 83° | 88° | 86° | — | 94° | — | — | 83–94° |
| 12d · 2026-09-08 | 84° | 89° | 86° | — | 89° | — | — | 84–89° |
| 11d · 2026-09-09 | 86° | 87° | 86° | — | 92° | — | — | 86–92° |
| 10d · 2026-09-10 | 84° | 90° | 88° | — | 85° | — | — | 84–90° |
| 9d · 2026-09-11 | 84° | 91° | 87° | — | 91° | — | — | 84–91° |
| 8d · 2026-09-12 | 84° | 91° | 86° | 85° | 85° | — | — | 84–91° |
| 7d · 2026-09-13 | 84° | 85° | 81° | 82° | 90° | — | — | 81–90° |
| 6d · 2026-09-14 | 85° | 88° | 83° | 88° | 90° | 92° | — | 83–92° |
| 5d · 2026-09-15 | 83° | 84° | 84° | 85° | 90° | 90° | 86° | 83–90° |
| 4d · 2026-09-16 | 82° | 89° | 84° | 89° | 94° | 90° | 88° | 82–94° |
| 3d · 2026-09-17 | 83° | 89° | 85° | 85° | 94° | 88° | 86° | 83–94° |
| 2d · 2026-09-18 | 84° | 89° | 83° | 86° | 93° | 88° | 84° | 83–93° |
| 1d · 2026-09-19 | 83° | 89° | 83° | 85° | 89° | 86° | 85° | 83–89° |
| 0d · 2026-09-20 | 83° | 88° | 85° | 84° | 92° | 86° | 86° | 83–92° |
| actual | 90° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Miami — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MIA observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.