Was the forecast right for Miami on Sat Aug 1?
Miami, Florida · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
6 days out, 7 models put Miami's Sat Aug 1 high anywhere from 87° to 98°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 92°. The day verified at 91° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 0.34 in of precipitation — rain.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.0°. UKMO ran 5° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Miami scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d · 2026-07-26 | 89° | 90° | 91° | 92° | 87° | 98° | 94° | 87–98° |
| 5d · 2026-07-27 | 88° | 94° | 91° | 92° | 89° | 91° | 93° | 88–94° |
| 4d · 2026-07-28 | 87° | 94° | 91° | 92° | 90° | 90° | 92° | 87–94° |
| 3d · 2026-07-29 | 87° | 93° | 91° | 91° | 90° | 92° | 92° | 87–93° |
| 2d · 2026-07-30 | 87° | 94° | 90° | 92° | 90° | 92° | 89° | 87–94° |
| 1d · 2026-07-31 | 88° | 94° | 92° | 91° | 91° | 93° | 96° | 88–96° |
| actual | 91° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Miami — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.