Was the forecast right for Miami on Mon Aug 31?
Miami, Florida · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the MIA observations
10 days out, 4 models put Miami's Mon Aug 31 high anywhere from 85° to 93°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 92°. The day verified at 91° against the MIA observations, with 1.1 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 1.1°. AIFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 31 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Miami scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10d · 2026-08-21 | 85° | 89° | 87° | — | 93° | — | — | 85–93° |
| 9d · 2026-08-22 | 86° | 90° | 86° | 92° | 93° | — | — | 86–93° |
| 8d · 2026-08-23 | 85° | 90° | 85° | 92° | 95° | — | — | 85–95° |
| 7d · 2026-08-24 | 85° | 90° | 86° | 92° | 94° | — | — | 85–94° |
| 6d · 2026-08-25 | 85° | 90° | 89° | 91° | 94° | 90° | 91° | 85–94° |
| 5d · 2026-08-26 | 86° | 90° | 85° | 92° | 93° | 90° | 90° | 85–93° |
| 4d · 2026-08-27 | 86° | 91° | 88° | 92° | 93° | 92° | 90° | 86–93° |
| 3d · 2026-08-28 | 86° | 92° | 84° | 92° | 95° | 93° | 88° | 84–95° |
| 2d · 2026-08-29 | 86° | 91° | 86° | 92° | 93° | 90° | 87° | 86–93° |
| 1d · 2026-08-30 | 86° | 90° | 87° | 92° | 93° | 93° | 92° | 86–93° |
| actual | 91° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Miami — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the MIA observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.