Was the forecast right for Dallas on Mon Oct 5?
Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DAL observations
14 days out, 4 models put Dallas's Mon Oct 5 high anywhere from 65° to 90°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 81°. The day verified at 86° against the DAL observations — clear.
GFS landed closest, off by 2.8°. ECMWF ran 8° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Oct 5 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-20 | — | 87° | — | — | 77° | — | — | 77–87° |
| 14d · 2026-09-21 | 90° | 75° | 74° | — | 65° | — | — | 65–90° |
| 13d · 2026-09-22 | 87° | 72° | 79° | — | 82° | — | — | 72–87° |
| 12d · 2026-09-23 | 77° | 82° | 83° | — | 69° | — | — | 69–83° |
| 11d · 2026-09-24 | 79° | 69° | 82° | — | 64° | — | — | 64–82° |
| 10d · 2026-09-25 | 76° | 68° | 81° | — | 69° | — | — | 68–81° |
| 9d · 2026-09-26 | 82° | 67° | 72° | 74° | 75° | — | — | 67–82° |
| 8d · 2026-09-27 | 74° | 75° | 80° | 73° | 87° | — | — | 73–87° |
| 7d · 2026-09-28 | 78° | 79° | 78° | 76° | 82° | — | — | 76–82° |
| 6d · 2026-09-29 | 83° | 83° | 77° | 83° | 80° | 77° | 80° | 77–83° |
| 5d · 2026-09-30 | 82° | 83° | 78° | 81° | 84° | 81° | 84° | 78–84° |
| 4d · 2026-10-01 | 81° | 82° | 78° | 82° | 84° | 78° | 82° | 78–84° |
| 3d · 2026-10-02 | 81° | 83° | 79° | 83° | 83° | 79° | 82° | 79–83° |
| 2d · 2026-10-03 | 81° | 81° | 79° | 81° | 84° | 80° | 82° | 79–84° |
| 1d · 2026-10-04 | 81° | 81° | 78° | 79° | 83° | 80° | 82° | 78–83° |
| actual | 86° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DAL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.