Was the forecast right for Dallas on Mon Sep 28?
Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DAL observations
14 days out, 4 models put Dallas's Mon Sep 28 high anywhere from 84° to 99°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 91°. The day verified at 94° against the DAL observations — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 1.8°. GEM ran 9° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 28 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-13 | — | 89° | — | — | 76° | — | — | 76–89° |
| 14d · 2026-09-14 | 84° | 95° | 99° | — | 99° | — | — | 84–99° |
| 13d · 2026-09-15 | 94° | 84° | 87° | — | 100° | — | — | 84–100° |
| 12d · 2026-09-16 | 83° | 76° | 88° | — | 92° | — | — | 76–92° |
| 11d · 2026-09-17 | 80° | 90° | 88° | — | 93° | — | — | 80–93° |
| 10d · 2026-09-18 | 83° | 85° | 101° | — | 85° | — | — | 83–101° |
| 9d · 2026-09-19 | 88° | 84° | 91° | 88° | 93° | — | — | 84–93° |
| 8d · 2026-09-20 | 89° | 96° | 88° | 89° | 101° | — | — | 88–101° |
| 7d · 2026-09-21 | 90° | 96° | 96° | 91° | 98° | — | — | 90–98° |
| 6d · 2026-09-22 | 93° | 96° | 100° | 86° | 93° | 89° | — | 86–100° |
| 5d · 2026-09-23 | 93° | 95° | 95° | 94° | 98° | 97° | 98° | 93–98° |
| 4d · 2026-09-24 | 90° | 92° | 92° | 93° | 99° | 97° | 94° | 90–99° |
| 3d · 2026-09-25 | 88° | 92° | 90° | 94° | 98° | 96° | 93° | 88–98° |
| 2d · 2026-09-26 | 88° | 91° | 91° | 92° | 98° | 92° | 95° | 88–98° |
| 1d · 2026-09-27 | 88° | 91° | 88° | 85° | 96° | 91° | 92° | 85–96° |
| actual | 94° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DAL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.