Was the forecast right for Dallas on Mon Aug 3?

Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

8 days out, 5 models put Dallas's Mon Aug 3 high anywhere from 35° to 38°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 38°. The day verified at 39° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — clear.

ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.3°. GEM ran 2° cool.

8 days out the models said 35–38; it hit 39. ECMWF led (off 0.3°C); GEM ran 2°C cool. — The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 3 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead	AIFS	AIGFS	ECMWF	GEM	GFS	ICON	UKMO	Range
8d · 2026-07-26	35°	35°	38°	36°	38°	—	—	35–38°
7d · 2026-07-27	34°	34°	39°	36°	39°	—	—	34–39°
6d · 2026-07-28	35°	36°	39°	36°	41°	38°	39°	35–41°
5d · 2026-07-29	35°	36°	39°	34°	38°	38°	37°	34–39°
4d · 2026-07-30	36°	37°	39°	36°	41°	39°	38°	36–41°
3d · 2026-07-31	37°	37°	41°	37°	42°	38°	39°	37–42°
2d · 2026-08-01	37°	37°	39°	37°	41°	38°	38°	37–41°
1d · 2026-08-02	37°	38°	39°	37°	38°	38°	38°	37–39°
actual								39°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.