The Spread

Was the forecast right for Dallas on Sat Aug 1?

Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

5 days out, 7 models put Dallas's Sat Aug 1 high anywhere from 36° to 41°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 37°. The day verified at 36° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — cloudy.

AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. ECMWF ran 2° hot.

5 days out the models said 36–41; it hit 36. AIGFS led (off 0.1°C); ECMWF ran 2°C hot.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
5d · 2026-07-27 36° 36° 41° 38° 40° 39° 41° 36–41°
4d · 2026-07-28 37° 38° 41° 36° 39° 37° 40° 36–41°
3d · 2026-07-29 36° 36° 40° 35° 38° 38° 39° 35–40°
2d · 2026-07-30 36° 37° 39° 35° 40° 38° 38° 35–40°
1d · 2026-07-31 37° 37° 39° 35° 37° 38° 38° 35–39°
0d · 2026-08-01 36° 36° 38° 35° 37° 37° 38° 35–38°
actual 36°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.