The Spread

Was the forecast right for Dallas on Wed Aug 5?

Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

9 days out, 4 models put Dallas's Wed Aug 5 high anywhere from 30° to 41°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 38°. The day verified at 39° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — partly cloudy.

AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. GEM ran 1° cold.

9 days out the models said 30–41; it hit 39. AIGFS led (off 0.2°C); GEM ran 1°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Wed Aug 5 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
9d · 2026-07-27 30° 36° 39° — 41° — — 30–41°
8d · 2026-07-28 36° 35° 41° 36° 42° — — 35–42°
7d · 2026-07-29 37° 37° 41° 38° 41° — — 37–41°
6d · 2026-07-30 37° 39° 40° 37° 42° 39° — 37–42°
5d · 2026-07-31 38° 38° 41° 38° 41° 41° 40° 38–41°
4d · 2026-08-01 38° 38° 40° 38° 41° 39° 39° 38–41°
3d · 2026-08-02 38° 39° 40° 37° 41° 38° 37° 37–41°
2d · 2026-08-03 39° 38° 40° 38° 42° 38° 38° 38–42°
1d · 2026-08-04 38° 39° 39° 38° 38° 39° 38° 38–39°
0d · 2026-08-05 38° 39° 39° 38° 38° 38° 38° 38–39°
actual 39°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.