The Spread

Was the forecast right for Dallas on Mon Sep 7?

Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DAL observations

13 days out, 4 models put Dallas's Mon Sep 7 high anywhere from 25° to 40°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 38°. The day verified at 38° against the DAL observations — partly cloudy.

ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.1°.

13 days out the models said 25–40; it hit 38. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C).
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 7 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-23 — 24° — — 39° — — 24–39°
14d · 2026-08-24 40° 29° — — 40° — — 29–40°
13d · 2026-08-25 31° 25° 35° — 40° — — 25–40°
12d · 2026-08-26 32° 28° 32° — 41° — — 28–41°
11d · 2026-08-27 37° 37° 39° — 40° — — 37–40°
10d · 2026-08-28 38° 38° 38° — 36° — — 36–38°
9d · 2026-08-29 37° 39° 38° — 39° — — 37–39°
8d · 2026-08-30 37° 33° 39° 36° 40° — — 33–40°
7d · 2026-08-31 38° 35° 38° 33° 40° — — 33–40°
6d · 2026-09-01 37° 36° 38° 36° 39° 37° — 36–39°
5d · 2026-09-02 37° 38° 35° 37° 40° 37° 38° 35–40°
4d · 2026-09-03 37° 36° 38° 38° 40° 38° 38° 36–40°
3d · 2026-09-04 37° 35° 39° 36° 39° 37° 38° 35–39°
2d · 2026-09-05 38° 36° 39° 38° 40° 38° 38° 36–40°
1d · 2026-09-06 38° 37° 39° 38° 40° 38° 38° 37–40°
0d · 2026-09-07 38° 37° 38° 38° 39° 38° 39° 37–39°
actual 38°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DAL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.