Was the forecast right for Dallas on Fri Sep 4?
Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DAL observations
14 days out, 4 models put Dallas's Fri Sep 4 high anywhere from 35° to 42°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 35°. The day verified at 37° against the DAL observations — drizzle.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.9°. UKMO ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-20 | — | 37° | — | — | 39° | — | — | 37–39° |
| 14d · 2026-08-21 | 35° | 38° | 38° | — | 42° | — | — | 35–42° |
| 13d · 2026-08-22 | 37° | 34° | 35° | — | 40° | — | — | 34–40° |
| 12d · 2026-08-23 | 37° | 37° | 39° | — | 44° | — | — | 37–44° |
| 11d · 2026-08-24 | 37° | 38° | 38° | — | 35° | — | — | 35–38° |
| 10d · 2026-08-25 | 38° | 38° | 39° | — | 35° | — | — | 35–39° |
| 9d · 2026-08-26 | 38° | 38° | 38° | 38° | 41° | — | — | 38–41° |
| 8d · 2026-08-27 | 38° | 38° | 39° | 36° | 40° | — | — | 36–40° |
| 7d · 2026-08-28 | 38° | 35° | 38° | 38° | 38° | — | — | 35–38° |
| 6d · 2026-08-29 | 36° | 35° | 37° | 37° | 40° | 39° | 37° | 35–40° |
| 5d · 2026-08-30 | 35° | 35° | 37° | 31° | 37° | 37° | 36° | 31–37° |
| 4d · 2026-08-31 | 35° | 35° | 37° | 34° | 33° | 35° | 36° | 33–37° |
| 3d · 2026-09-01 | 34° | 36° | 33° | 32° | 38° | 35° | 37° | 32–38° |
| 2d · 2026-09-02 | 33° | 34° | 34° | 28° | 33° | 33° | 33° | 28–34° |
| 1d · 2026-09-03 | 35° | 35° | 36° | 34° | 35° | 34° | 32° | 32–36° |
| actual | 37° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DAL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.