The Spread

Was the forecast right for Dallas on Fri Sep 4?

Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DAL observations

13 days out, 4 models put Dallas's Fri Sep 4 high anywhere from 36° to 38°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 36°. The day verified at 37° against the DAL observations — drizzle.

ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.2°. GFS ran 4° cold.

13 days out the models said 36–38; it hit 37. ECMWF led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 4°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
14d · 2026-08-21 36° 39° — — 39° — — 36–39°
13d · 2026-08-22 38° 37° 36° — 38° — — 36–38°
12d · 2026-08-23 37° 38° 34° — 37° — — 34–38°
11d · 2026-08-24 39° 36° 38° — 43° — — 36–43°
10d · 2026-08-25 38° 37° 38° — 40° — — 37–40°
9d · 2026-08-26 37° 38° 37° — 40° — — 37–40°
8d · 2026-08-27 38° 38° 39° 38° 40° — — 38–40°
7d · 2026-08-28 39° 36° 38° 38° 40° — — 36–40°
6d · 2026-08-29 39° 37° 40° 37° 39° 39° — 37–40°
5d · 2026-08-30 36° 35° 37° 26° 38° 39° 37° 26–39°
4d · 2026-08-31 36° 37° 33° 36° 38° 35° 37° 33–38°
3d · 2026-09-01 35° 35° 37° 34° 34° 34° 36° 34–37°
2d · 2026-09-02 34° 36° 32° 30° 37° 36° 36° 30–37°
1d · 2026-09-03 34° 35° 35° 34° 35° 32° 33° 32–35°
0d · 2026-09-04 36° 36° 37° 36° 34° 35° 36° 34–37°
actual 37°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DAL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.