Was the forecast right for Dallas on Fri Sep 4?
Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DAL observations
13 days out, 4 models put Dallas's Fri Sep 4 high anywhere from 97° to 101°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 96°. The day verified at 99° against the DAL observations — drizzle.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.3°. GFS ran 6° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14d · 2026-08-21 | 97° | 101° | — | — | 103° | — | — | 97–103° |
| 13d · 2026-08-22 | 101° | 99° | 97° | — | 101° | — | — | 97–101° |
| 12d · 2026-08-23 | 98° | 101° | 93° | — | 98° | — | — | 93–101° |
| 11d · 2026-08-24 | 102° | 96° | 101° | — | 109° | — | — | 96–109° |
| 10d · 2026-08-25 | 100° | 98° | 100° | — | 105° | — | — | 98–105° |
| 9d · 2026-08-26 | 99° | 100° | 99° | — | 104° | — | — | 99–104° |
| 8d · 2026-08-27 | 100° | 100° | 102° | 101° | 104° | — | — | 100–104° |
| 7d · 2026-08-28 | 102° | 97° | 100° | 100° | 104° | — | — | 97–104° |
| 6d · 2026-08-29 | 102° | 98° | 103° | 99° | 103° | 102° | — | 98–103° |
| 5d · 2026-08-30 | 97° | 95° | 99° | 79° | 101° | 103° | 99° | 79–103° |
| 4d · 2026-08-31 | 96° | 99° | 92° | 96° | 100° | 95° | 98° | 92–100° |
| 3d · 2026-09-01 | 95° | 96° | 99° | 92° | 94° | 93° | 97° | 92–99° |
| 2d · 2026-09-02 | 94° | 97° | 90° | 87° | 99° | 97° | 97° | 87–99° |
| 1d · 2026-09-03 | 93° | 95° | 95° | 93° | 95° | 90° | 91° | 90–95° |
| 0d · 2026-09-04 | 96° | 96° | 99° | 97° | 93° | 95° | 97° | 93–99° |
| actual | 99° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DAL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.