Was the forecast right for Dallas on Fri Sep 4?
Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DAL observations
14 days out, 4 models put Dallas's Fri Sep 4 high anywhere from 95° to 107°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 95°. The day verified at 99° against the DAL observations — drizzle.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 1.6°. UKMO ran 10° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-20 | — | 99° | — | — | 103° | — | — | 99–103° |
| 14d · 2026-08-21 | 95° | 101° | 101° | — | 107° | — | — | 95–107° |
| 13d · 2026-08-22 | 99° | 94° | 95° | — | 105° | — | — | 94–105° |
| 12d · 2026-08-23 | 99° | 98° | 103° | — | 112° | — | — | 98–112° |
| 11d · 2026-08-24 | 99° | 101° | 100° | — | 96° | — | — | 96–101° |
| 10d · 2026-08-25 | 100° | 101° | 101° | — | 95° | — | — | 95–101° |
| 9d · 2026-08-26 | 100° | 101° | 100° | 100° | 106° | — | — | 100–106° |
| 8d · 2026-08-27 | 100° | 100° | 102° | 98° | 104° | — | — | 98–104° |
| 7d · 2026-08-28 | 100° | 95° | 100° | 101° | 100° | — | — | 95–101° |
| 6d · 2026-08-29 | 98° | 96° | 99° | 99° | 104° | 102° | 99° | 96–104° |
| 5d · 2026-08-30 | 96° | 95° | 98° | 88° | 98° | 99° | 97° | 88–99° |
| 4d · 2026-08-31 | 96° | 95° | 99° | 94° | 91° | 96° | 97° | 91–99° |
| 3d · 2026-09-01 | 94° | 97° | 91° | 90° | 100° | 94° | 98° | 90–100° |
| 2d · 2026-09-02 | 92° | 93° | 93° | 83° | 92° | 92° | 92° | 83–93° |
| 1d · 2026-09-03 | 95° | 96° | 97° | 93° | 96° | 94° | 89° | 89–97° |
| actual | 99° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DAL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.