Was the forecast right for Dallas on Tue Aug 25?
Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DAL observations
5 days out, 7 models put Dallas's Tue Aug 25 high anywhere from 40° to 44°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 41°. The day verified at 38° against the DAL observations — cloudy.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.8°. UKMO ran 4° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Aug 25 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d · 2026-08-20 | 40° | 42° | 41° | 42° | 42° | 44° | 43° | 40–44° |
| 4d · 2026-08-21 | 40° | 42° | 42° | 40° | 44° | 43° | 42° | 40–44° |
| 3d · 2026-08-22 | 40° | 42° | 43° | 40° | 40° | 41° | 42° | 40–43° |
| 2d · 2026-08-23 | 39° | 41° | 42° | 40° | 41° | 41° | 38° | 38–42° |
| 1d · 2026-08-24 | 39° | 41° | 42° | 39° | 42° | 41° | 42° | 39–42° |
| actual | 38° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DAL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.