The Spread

Was the forecast right for Dallas on Sun Sep 6?

Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DAL observations

13 days out, 4 models put Dallas's Sun Sep 6 high anywhere from 29° to 43°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 37°. The day verified at 38° against the DAL observations — clear.

GEM landed closest, off by 0.2°. GFS ran 1° hot.

13 days out the models said 29–43; it hit 38. GEM led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 1°C hot.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 6 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-22 — 36° — — 40° — — 36–40°
14d · 2026-08-23 35° 30° — — 40° — — 30–40°
13d · 2026-08-24 40° 29° 39° — 43° — — 29–43°
12d · 2026-08-25 36° 27° 35° — 40° — — 27–40°
11d · 2026-08-26 36° 37° 32° — 41° — — 32–41°
10d · 2026-08-27 39° 37° 40° — 40° — — 37–40°
9d · 2026-08-28 38° 38° 38° — 41° — — 38–41°
8d · 2026-08-29 38° 38° 39° 37° 41° — — 37–41°
7d · 2026-08-30 38° 38° 39° 35° 42° — — 35–42°
6d · 2026-08-31 38° 38° 34° 34° 39° 38° — 34–39°
5d · 2026-09-01 36° 35° 38° 37° 39° 38° 37° 35–39°
4d · 2026-09-02 37° 37° 34° 37° 39° 39° 38° 34–39°
3d · 2026-09-03 36° 36° 37° 37° 39° 38° 37° 36–39°
2d · 2026-09-04 37° 35° 38° 37° 38° 38° 38° 35–38°
1d · 2026-09-05 37° 36° 38° 37° 39° 38° 38° 36–39°
0d · 2026-09-06 37° 37° 38° 38° 39° 37° 37° 37–39°
actual 38°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DAL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.