Was the forecast right for Dallas on Sun Sep 6?
Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DAL observations
14 days out, 4 models put Dallas's Sun Sep 6 high anywhere from 87° to 109°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 100°. The day verified at 100° against the DAL observations — clear.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIGFS ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 6 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-22 | — | 102° | — | — | 109° | — | — | 102–109° |
| 14d · 2026-08-23 | 100° | 87° | 104° | — | 109° | — | — | 87–109° |
| 13d · 2026-08-24 | 97° | 98° | 89° | — | 100° | — | — | 89–100° |
| 12d · 2026-08-25 | 90° | 101° | 96° | — | 97° | — | — | 90–101° |
| 11d · 2026-08-26 | 89° | 101° | 101° | — | 111° | — | — | 89–111° |
| 10d · 2026-08-27 | 102° | 100° | 101° | — | 96° | — | — | 96–102° |
| 9d · 2026-08-28 | 100° | 99° | 104° | 100° | 104° | — | — | 99–104° |
| 8d · 2026-08-29 | 98° | 92° | 99° | 91° | 100° | — | — | 91–100° |
| 7d · 2026-08-30 | 100° | 97° | 103° | 99° | 101° | — | — | 97–103° |
| 6d · 2026-08-31 | 98° | 98° | 99° | 99° | 100° | 101° | 97° | 97–101° |
| 5d · 2026-09-01 | 98° | 100° | 92° | 100° | 102° | 99° | 101° | 92–102° |
| 4d · 2026-09-02 | 96° | 95° | 97° | 98° | 98° | 100° | 100° | 95–100° |
| 3d · 2026-09-03 | 97° | 96° | 100° | 97° | 100° | 102° | 99° | 96–102° |
| 2d · 2026-09-04 | 98° | 96° | 100° | 99° | 101° | 101° | 100° | 96–101° |
| 1d · 2026-09-05 | 100° | 97° | 100° | 100° | 102° | 100° | 99° | 97–102° |
| actual | 100° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DAL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.