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Was the forecast right for Dallas on Thu Sep 17?

Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DAL observations

13 days out, 4 models put Dallas's Thu Sep 17 high anywhere from 33° to 40°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 37°. The day verified at 38° against the DAL observations — drizzle.

GFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. UKMO ran 2° cold.

13 days out the models said 33–40; it hit 38. GFS led (off 0.2°C); UKMO ran 2°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 17 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-09-02 — 27° — — 37° — — 27–37°
14d · 2026-09-03 33° 34° — — 39° — — 33–39°
13d · 2026-09-04 34° 33° 40° — 39° — — 33–40°
12d · 2026-09-05 34° 31° 37° — 34° — — 31–37°
11d · 2026-09-06 35° 36° 32° — 30° — — 30–36°
10d · 2026-09-07 38° 32° 31° — 34° — — 31–38°
9d · 2026-09-08 36° 36° 36° — 38° — — 36–38°
8d · 2026-09-09 36° 36° 39° 37° 39° — — 36–39°
7d · 2026-09-10 36° 37° 38° 36° 40° — — 36–40°
6d · 2026-09-11 37° 37° 38° 37° 38° 36° — 36–38°
5d · 2026-09-12 36° 36° 37° 36° 38° 36° 36° 36–38°
4d · 2026-09-13 36° 35° 37° 36° 37° 37° 36° 35–37°
3d · 2026-09-14 37° 35° 38° 35° 37° 37° 36° 35–38°
2d · 2026-09-15 37° 35° 38° 37° 38° 37° 37° 35–38°
1d · 2026-09-16 37° 36° 37° 35° 37° 37° 36° 35–37°
0d · 2026-09-17 37° 36° 37° 36° 38° 37° 35° 35–38°
actual 38°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DAL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.