The Spread

Was the forecast right for Dallas on Tue Sep 1?

Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DAL observations

11 days out, 4 models put Dallas's Tue Sep 1 high anywhere from 37° to 41°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 37°. The day verified at 38° against the DAL observations — drizzle.

ICON landed closest, off by 0.2°. GFS ran 1° hot.

11 days out the models said 37–41; it hit 38. ICON led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 1°C hot.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
11d · 2026-08-21 38° 37° 41° — 39° — — 37–41°
10d · 2026-08-22 38° 37° 35° — 40° — — 35–40°
9d · 2026-08-23 39° 38° 40° — 40° — — 38–40°
8d · 2026-08-24 38° 37° 38° 38° 41° — — 37–41°
7d · 2026-08-25 38° 38° 38° 38° 40° — — 38–40°
6d · 2026-08-26 38° 38° 37° 37° 39° 38° — 37–39°
5d · 2026-08-27 38° 37° 39° 37° 39° 38° 36° 36–39°
4d · 2026-08-28 38° 38° 39° 36° 39° 38° 38° 36–39°
3d · 2026-08-29 37° 37° 38° 37° 40° 38° 37° 37–40°
2d · 2026-08-30 37° 37° 38° 37° 39° 38° 37° 37–39°
1d · 2026-08-31 37° 37° 38° 38° 40° 38° 38° 37–40°
0d · 2026-09-01 37° 37° 38° 37° 39° 38° 37° 37–39°
actual 38°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DAL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.