The Spread

Was the forecast right for Dallas on Sat Sep 5?

Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DAL observations

13 days out, 4 models put Dallas's Sat Sep 5 high anywhere from 33° to 41°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 37°. The day verified at 38° against the DAL observations — drizzle.

ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.3°. AIFS ran 2° cold.

13 days out the models said 33–41; it hit 38. ECMWF led (off 0.3°C); AIFS ran 2°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 5 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-21 — 38° — — 41° — — 38–41°
14d · 2026-08-22 39° 37° — — 40° — — 37–40°
13d · 2026-08-23 33° 37° 33° — 41° — — 33–41°
12d · 2026-08-24 40° 35° 39° — 43° — — 35–43°
11d · 2026-08-25 37° 37° 38° — 39° — — 37–39°
10d · 2026-08-26 37° 37° 36° — 40° — — 36–40°
9d · 2026-08-27 38° 37° 40° — 39° — — 37–40°
8d · 2026-08-28 37° 37° 38° 38° 40° — — 37–40°
7d · 2026-08-29 39° 37° 39° 37° 41° — — 37–41°
6d · 2026-08-30 37° 36° 38° 32° 39° 39° — 32–39°
5d · 2026-08-31 37° 38° 34° 35° 38° 38° 37° 34–38°
4d · 2026-09-01 36° 36° 37° 36° 38° 37° 37° 36–38°
3d · 2026-09-02 36° 36° 33° 34° 38° 38° 37° 33–38°
2d · 2026-09-03 35° 35° 36° 36° 37° 35° 36° 35–37°
1d · 2026-09-04 36° 36° 38° 37° 37° 36° 37° 36–38°
0d · 2026-09-05 36° 36° 38° 37° 38° 37° 37° 36–38°
actual 38°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DAL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.