The Spread

Was the forecast right for Dallas on Tue Sep 8?

Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DAL observations

13 days out, 4 models put Dallas's Tue Sep 8 high anywhere from 29° to 42°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 38°. The day verified at 38° against the DAL observations — drizzle.

GEM landed closest, off by 0.2°.

13 days out the models said 29–42; it hit 38. GEM led (off 0.2°C).
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 8 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-24 — 29° — — 37° — — 29–37°
14d · 2026-08-25 28° 28° — — 39° — — 28–39°
13d · 2026-08-26 36° 29° 32° — 42° — — 29–42°
12d · 2026-08-27 33° 38° 37° — 40° — — 33–40°
11d · 2026-08-28 39° 37° 37° — 40° — — 37–40°
10d · 2026-08-29 37° 38° 38° — 38° — — 37–38°
9d · 2026-08-30 37° 34° 37° — 39° — — 34–39°
8d · 2026-08-31 38° 34° 35° 34° 42° — — 34–42°
7d · 2026-09-01 38° 37° 37° 37° 39° — — 37–39°
6d · 2026-09-02 37° 36° 34° 37° 39° 36° — 34–39°
5d · 2026-09-03 37° 36° 38° 39° 40° 34° 32° 32–40°
4d · 2026-09-04 38° 36° 39° 37° 39° 36° 38° 36–39°
3d · 2026-09-05 38° 36° 39° 37° 40° 39° 38° 36–40°
2d · 2026-09-06 38° 37° 39° 37° 40° 39° 38° 37–40°
1d · 2026-09-07 37° 37° 39° 38° 40° 38° 38° 37–40°
0d · 2026-09-08 38° 38° 38° 38° 39° 38° 38° 38–39°
actual 38°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DAL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.