The Spread

Was the forecast right for Dallas on Wed Sep 9?

Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DAL observations

13 days out, 4 models put Dallas's Wed Sep 9 high anywhere from 36° to 42°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 38°. The day verified at 38° against the DAL observations — drizzle.

ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIGFS ran 1° cold.

13 days out the models said 36–42; it hit 38. ECMWF led (off 0.2°C); AIGFS ran 1°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 9 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-25 — 30° — — 40° — — 30–40°
14d · 2026-08-26 37° 30° — — 43° — — 30–43°
13d · 2026-08-27 37° 38° 36° — 42° — — 36–42°
12d · 2026-08-28 37° 31° 37° — 38° — — 31–38°
11d · 2026-08-29 36° 39° 38° — 35° — — 35–39°
10d · 2026-08-30 37° 35° 37° — 40° — — 35–40°
9d · 2026-08-31 36° 34° 35° — 43° — — 34–43°
8d · 2026-09-01 37° 36° 36° 36° 39° — — 36–39°
7d · 2026-09-02 36° 35° 33° 32° 37° — — 32–37°
6d · 2026-09-03 37° 35° 36° 34° 39° 35° — 34–39°
5d · 2026-09-04 37° 36° 38° 37° 39° 34° 38° 34–39°
4d · 2026-09-05 38° 37° 38° 38° 39° 39° 38° 37–39°
3d · 2026-09-06 38° 37° 38° 37° 40° 39° 38° 37–40°
2d · 2026-09-07 37° 37° 38° 37° 38° 38° 37° 37–38°
1d · 2026-09-08 37° 37° 38° 38° 38° 38° 37° 37–38°
0d · 2026-09-09 38° 37° 38° 37° 39° 37° 38° 37–39°
actual 38°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DAL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.