Was the forecast right for Dallas on Thu Jul 30?

Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

3 days out, 7 models put Dallas's Thu Jul 30 high anywhere from 36° to 42°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 38°. The day verified at 39° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — drizzle.

GFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIFS ran 2° cold.

3 days out the models said 36–42; it hit 39. GFS led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 2°C cold. — The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Thu Jul 30 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead	AIFS	AIGFS	ECMWF	GEM	GFS	ICON	UKMO	Range
3d · 2026-07-27	37°	36°	40°	38°	42°	39°	39°	36–42°
2d · 2026-07-28	37°	38°	41°	38°	41°	39°	39°	37–41°
1d · 2026-07-29	37°	38°	40°	38°	39°	39°	39°	37–40°
0d · 2026-07-30	37°	38°	39°	38°	39°	38°	38°	37–39°
actual								39°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.