The Spread

Was the forecast right for Dallas on Sun Aug 2?

Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

6 days out, 6 models put Dallas's Sun Aug 2 high anywhere from 33° to 38°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 36°. The day verified at 36° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — clear.

AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIFS ran 1° cold.

6 days out the models said 33–38; it hit 36. AIGFS led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 1°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 2 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
6d · 2026-07-27 34° 33° 37° 37° 38° 37° — 33–38°
5d · 2026-07-28 34° 35° 38° 36° 37° 33° 38° 33–38°
4d · 2026-07-29 34° 34° 38° 34° 36° 37° 38° 34–38°
3d · 2026-07-30 35° 35° 37° 35° 37° 36° 36° 35–37°
2d · 2026-07-31 36° 36° 38° 35° 38° 37° 38° 35–38°
1d · 2026-08-01 36° 35° 37° 35° 36° 35° 37° 35–37°
0d · 2026-08-02 35° 36° 37° 35° 36° 35° 37° 35–37°
actual 36°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.