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Was the forecast right for Dallas on Mon Aug 31?

Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DAL observations

11 days out, 4 models put Dallas's Mon Aug 31 high anywhere from 37° to 41°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 38°. The day verified at 38° against the DAL observations — cloudy.

AIFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. GFS ran 2° warm.

11 days out the models said 37–41; it hit 38. AIFS led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 31 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
11d · 2026-08-20 40° 37° 39° — 41° — — 37–41°
10d · 2026-08-21 38° 37° 40° — 40° — — 37–40°
9d · 2026-08-22 38° 37° 40° 38° 38° — — 37–40°
8d · 2026-08-23 37° 38° 38° 38° 41° — — 37–41°
7d · 2026-08-24 38° 37° 38° 37° 38° — — 37–38°
6d · 2026-08-25 37° 37° 38° 38° 39° 39° 36° 36–39°
5d · 2026-08-26 38° 38° 39° 35° 39° 38° 38° 35–39°
4d · 2026-08-27 38° 38° 39° 37° 39° 38° 37° 37–39°
3d · 2026-08-28 38° 38° 39° 38° 39° 38° 38° 38–39°
2d · 2026-08-29 38° 38° 39° 38° 40° 38° 38° 38–40°
1d · 2026-08-30 38° 38° 38° 37° 40° 37° 37° 37–40°
actual 38°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DAL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.