Was the forecast right for Dallas on Mon Aug 31?
Dallas, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the DAL observations
11 days out, 4 models put Dallas's Mon Aug 31 high anywhere from 99° to 105°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 100°. The day verified at 100° against the DAL observations — cloudy.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.4°. GFS ran 4° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 31 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Dallas scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11d · 2026-08-20 | 104° | 99° | 102° | — | 105° | — | — | 99–105° |
| 10d · 2026-08-21 | 100° | 99° | 105° | — | 104° | — | — | 99–105° |
| 9d · 2026-08-22 | 100° | 99° | 104° | 101° | 101° | — | — | 99–104° |
| 8d · 2026-08-23 | 99° | 100° | 101° | 100° | 106° | — | — | 99–106° |
| 7d · 2026-08-24 | 100° | 99° | 101° | 98° | 101° | — | — | 98–101° |
| 6d · 2026-08-25 | 99° | 99° | 100° | 100° | 102° | 103° | 96° | 96–103° |
| 5d · 2026-08-26 | 100° | 100° | 102° | 96° | 102° | 100° | 100° | 96–102° |
| 4d · 2026-08-27 | 100° | 101° | 102° | 99° | 103° | 100° | 99° | 99–103° |
| 3d · 2026-08-28 | 100° | 100° | 103° | 100° | 103° | 101° | 100° | 100–103° |
| 2d · 2026-08-29 | 100° | 100° | 102° | 100° | 104° | 100° | 100° | 100–104° |
| 1d · 2026-08-30 | 100° | 101° | 101° | 99° | 104° | 99° | 98° | 98–104° |
| actual | 100° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Dallas — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the DAL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.