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Which weather model is most accurate in New York?

Forecast Highs Lows Rain Model accuracy

New York, New York · daily high temperature in °C · trailing 30 days, through Fri Oct 16

Every day, The Spread archives what each major weather model predicted for New York at 1-, 3-, and 7-day leads, then scores those forecasts against the NYC observations once the day has happened. This page covers the trailing 30 days (2026-09-17 to 2026-10-16), for daily high temperature.

One day out, too close to call; at three days, too close to call; at seven days, too close to call.

The largest standing bias belongs to GEM (Canada), which has run warm by about 1.49°C at 1-day lead over this window.

New York's full forecast, every model day by day, with the record on this page beside it. Request an invite; it's free during the beta.

The scoreboard

Typical miss (MAE) in °C with the bias in parentheses. Bias is the mean signed error of the predicted daily high — positive means the model ran warm. A model's high is the warmest of its hourly values and the station's is the warmest it got at any moment, so a model's high reads a little cool, and its low a little warm, even on a day it gets every hour right. ECMWF IFS gives a value only every 3 hours (every 6 past day 6), and ECMWF AIFS (AI) and NOAA AIGFS (AI) only every 6, with the hours between filled in, so their highs read cooler still and their lows warmer. In the forecasts scored here GFS also steps to every 3 hours from day 5, ICON and GEM from day 4, and UKMO from day 3, every 6 by day 6. Days = scored days behind the 1-day number.

Model 1-day 3-day 7-day Days
ECMWF IFS 0.9° (+0.4°) 0.9° (+0.3°) 2.6° (-0.7°) 29
NOAA AIGFS (AI) 0.9° (-0.0°) 1.8° (-0.4°) 2.4° (-0.3°) 29
ECMWF AIFS (AI) 0.9° (+0.3°) 0.9° (+0.1°) 2.3° (-0.2°) 29
DWD ICON 0.9° (+0.4°) 1.2° (+0.4°) — 29
UKMO (UK) 0.9° (+0.8°) 1.3° (+0.6°) — 29
NOAA GFS 1.5° (+1.2°) 2.0° (+1.4°) 3.0° (+0.1°) 29
GEM (Canada) 1.6° (+1.5°) 1.1° (-0.1°) 2.9° (+0.8°) 29

Method, honestly

The Spread's New York point is the Central Park station (NYC), 8.4 km from downtown, used for both forecasts and verifications. Each forecast is the last one The Spread archived on the day it was made, the forecast the model was showing at the time, not a reconstruction. A day the station did not report is left out. Truth is the thermometer at Central Park (NYC) — the station's own daily highs, a thermometer rather than a grid, and no correction applies: the thermometer is the truth outright. Rankings cover the models themselves; consensus products such as the NBM, itself a blend of models, are not scored here. A rolling 30-day window means these numbers move — that is the point.

Receipts — was the forecast right?

One page per settled date: what every model said as the day approached, what happened, and who was closest.

  • Fri Oct 16 14 days out the models said 16–21; it hit 22. GFS led (off 0.7°C); ECMWF ran 3°C warm.
  • Thu Oct 15 14 days out the models said 13–25; it hit 18. ICON led (off 0.4°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Wed Oct 14 14 days out the models said 15–22; it hit 25. ICON led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 3°C warm.
  • Tue Oct 13 14 days out the models said 14–24; it hit 22. AIGFS led (off 0.3°C); GEM ran 2°C warm.
  • Mon Oct 12 14 days out the models said 16–19; it hit 21. AIFS led (off 0.3°C); GFS ran 3°C warm.
  • Sun Oct 11 14 days out the models said 12–16; it hit 16. ICON led (off 0.2°C); ECMWF ran 1°C warm.
  • Sat Oct 10 14 days out the models said 14–21; it hit 21. GFS led (off 0.1°C); UKMO ran 1°C cool.
  • Fri Oct 9 14 days out the models said 17–19; it hit 21. ECMWF led (off 0.0°C); GEM ran 2°C warm.
  • Thu Oct 8 14 days out the models said 13–20; it hit 23. UKMO led (off 0.2°C); AIFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Wed Oct 7 14 days out the models said 19–21; it hit 18. ECMWF led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 3°C warm.
  • Tue Oct 6 13 days out the models said 17–21; it hit 16. ECMWF led (off 0.7°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Mon Oct 5 14 days out the models said 16–23; it hit 20. ECMWF led (off 0.2°C); AIFS ran 1°C warm.
  • Sun Oct 4 14 days out the models said 18–26; it hit 17. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); UKMO ran 3°C warm.
  • Sat Oct 3 14 days out the models said 13–23; it hit 21. AIFS led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Fri Oct 2 14 days out the models said 19–25; it hit 28. UKMO led (off 0.4°C); GEM ran 2°C warm.
  • Thu Oct 1 14 days out the models said 20–22; it hit 24. AIFS led (off 0.4°C); GEM ran 3°C warm.
  • Wed Sep 30 14 days out the models said 16–28; it hit 23. ECMWF led (off 0.2°C); GEM ran 2°C warm.
  • Tue Sep 29 14 days out the models said 21–30; it hit 21. AIGFS led (off 0.3°C); ICON ran 1°C cool.
  • Mon Sep 28 14 days out the models said 20–25; it hit 17. ECMWF led (off 0.4°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Sun Sep 27 14 days out the models said 21–25; it hit 17. UKMO led (off 0.2°C); ICON ran 2°C warm.
  • Sat Sep 26 14 days out the models said 19–23; it hit 16. AIGFS led (off 0.0°C); UKMO ran 3°C warm.
  • Fri Sep 25 14 days out the models said 21–25; it hit 21. ICON led (off 0.3°C); AIFS ran 3°C warm.
  • Thu Sep 24 14 days out the models said 17–25; it hit 19. ICON led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 2°C warm.
  • Wed Sep 23 14 days out the models said 17–26; it hit 19. ICON led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 1°C warm.
  • Tue Sep 22 14 days out the models said 17–22; it hit 20. UKMO led (off 0.2°C); AIGFS ran 4°C cool.
  • Mon Sep 21 14 days out the models said 19–26; it hit 22. ICON led (off 0.1°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Sun Sep 20 14 days out the models said 16–25; it hit 21. GFS led (off 0.2°C); GEM ran 2°C warm.
  • Sat Sep 19 14 days out the models said 20–24; it hit 21. AIFS led (off 0.6°C); GEM ran 3°C warm.
  • Fri Sep 18 14 days out the models said 21–27; it hit 27. ECMWF led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Thu Sep 17 13 days out the models said 20–32; it hit 28. AIGFS led (off 0.0°C); ICON ran 3°C cool.
  • Wed Sep 16 14 days out the models said 22–30; it hit 25. AIFS led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 3°C warm.
  • Tue Sep 15 14 days out the models said 16–33; it hit 22. ICON led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Mon Sep 14 14 days out the models said 26–29; it hit 24. AIGFS led (off 0.1°C); UKMO ran 2°C warm.
  • Sun Sep 13 14 days out the models said 21–30; it hit 26. AIGFS led (off 0.3°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Sat Sep 12 14 days out the models said 18–30; it hit 26. AIFS led (off 0.0°C); GEM ran 1°C warm.
  • Fri Sep 11 14 days out the models said 23–32; it hit 26. AIFS led (off 0.6°C); GFS ran 3°C warm.
  • Thu Sep 10 14 days out the models said 24–34; it hit 29. ICON led (off 0.7°C); GFS ran 5°C warm.
  • Wed Sep 9 14 days out the models said 26–32; it hit 28. ICON led (off 0.7°C); GFS ran 4°C warm.
  • Tue Sep 8 14 days out the models said 26–30; it hit 27. AIFS led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 3°C warm.
  • Mon Sep 7 14 days out the models said 24–29; it hit 26. ECMWF led (off 0.3°C); GEM ran 2°C warm.
  • Sun Sep 6 14 days out the models said 23–27; it hit 24. UKMO led (off 0.2°C); GEM ran 2°C warm.
  • Sat Sep 5 14 days out the models said 21–25; it hit 26. AIFS led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 3°C warm.
  • Fri Sep 4 14 days out the models said 21–29; it hit 29. AIFS led (off 0.4°C); GFS ran 3°C warm.
  • Thu Sep 3 14 days out the models said 22–27; it hit 29. ECMWF led (off 1.3°C); GFS ran 3°C warm.
  • Wed Sep 2 13 days out the models said 24–28; it hit 22. AIFS led (off 0.1°C); UKMO ran 4°C warm.
  • Tue Sep 1 12 days out the models said 21–34; it hit 28. UKMO led (off 0.0°C); GFS ran 4°C warm.
  • Mon Aug 31 11 days out the models said 22–32; it hit 26. UKMO led (off 0.4°C); GEM ran 3°C warm.
  • Sun Aug 30 10 days out the models said 24–29; it hit 26. AIFS led (off 0.7°C); GEM ran 5°C warm.
  • Sat Aug 29 9 days out the models said 24–29; it hit 24. AIFS led (off 0.4°C); GFS ran 4°C warm.
  • Fri Aug 28 8 days out the models said 27–30; it hit 29. AIGFS led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 3°C warm.
  • Thu Aug 27 7 days out the models said 23–28; it hit 25. AIFS led (off 0.8°C); GEM ran 3°C warm.
  • Wed Aug 26 6 days out the models said 26–30; it hit 27. AIGFS led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 3°C warm.
  • Tue Aug 25 5 days out the models said 25–29; it hit 26. AIGFS led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 3°C warm.
  • Mon Aug 24 4 days out the models said 24–29; it hit 26. AIFS led (off 0.2°C); GEM ran 2°C warm.
  • Tue Aug 18 14 days out the models said 24–29; it hit 29. ICON led (off 0.2°C); UKMO ran 2°C warm.
  • Mon Aug 17 14 days out the models said 24–30; it hit 27. UKMO led (off 0.3°C); GFS ran 4°C warm.
  • Sun Aug 16 14 days out the models said 25–29; it hit 26. ICON led (off 0.6°C); ECMWF ran 2°C warm.
  • Sat Aug 15 14 days out the models said 21–29; it hit 28. AIGFS led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Fri Aug 14 14 days out the models said 26–27; it hit 29. AIFS led (off 0.2°C); ICON ran 2°C warm.
  • Thu Aug 13 14 days out the models said 22–27; it hit 29. AIFS led (off 0.2°C); UKMO ran 2°C warm.
  • Wed Aug 12 14 days out the models said 24–29; it hit 32. GFS led (off 0.6°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cool.
  • Tue Aug 11 14 days out the models said 29–32; it hit 31. ICON led (off 0.1°C).
  • Mon Aug 10 14 days out the models said 30–33; it hit 33. ICON led (off 0.0°C); AIFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Sun Aug 9 14 days out the models said 26–31; it hit 33. AIGFS led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 1°C warm.
  • Sat Aug 8 13 days out the models said 26–33; it hit 31. GEM led (off 0.4°C); UKMO ran 2°C warm.
  • Fri Aug 7 12 days out the models said 26–32; it hit 35. GFS led (off 1.1°C); ECMWF ran 6°C cool.
  • Thu Aug 6 11 days out the models said 27–30; it hit 33. GFS led (off 0.6°C); AIGFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Wed Aug 5 10 days out the models said 28–32; it hit 28. AIFS led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Tue Aug 4 9 days out the models said 22–31; it hit 29. ECMWF led (off 0.3°C); GFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Mon Aug 3 8 days out the models said 22–32; it hit 28. ICON led (off 0.1°C); UKMO ran 3°C warm.
  • Sun Aug 2 7 days out the models said 24–29; it hit 28. GFS led (off 0.1°C); ICON ran 1°C cool.
  • Sat Aug 1 6 days out the models said 26–31; it hit 30. AIFS led (off 0.1°C); ICON ran 2°C cool.
  • Fri Jul 31 5 days out the models said 25–31; it hit 29. GEM led (off 0.1°C).
  • Thu Jul 30 4 days out the models said 22–28; it hit 25. ECMWF led (off 0.2°C); GEM ran 2°C warm.

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