Which weather model is most accurate in New York?
New York, New York · daily high temperature in °C · trailing 30 days · refreshed at most every 6 hours
Every day, The Spread archives what each major weather model predicted for New York at 1-, 3-, and 7-day leads, then scores those forecasts against the NYC observations once the day has happened. This page covers the trailing 30 days (2026-08-04 to 2026-09-02), for daily high temperature.
One day out, ECMWF AIFS (AI) has been most accurate (typical miss 0.76°C); at three days, ECMWF AIFS (AI) (1.12°C); at seven days, ECMWF AIFS (AI) (1.54°C).
The largest standing bias belongs to NOAA GFS, which has run warm by about 3.2°C at 1-day lead over this window.
The Spread's own bias-corrected blend scored a 0.84°C typical miss at one day. Its corrections come from the same window it is scored on (in-sample), so read it as a ceiling, not a promise.
The scoreboard
Typical miss (MAE) in °C with the signed bias in parentheses — positive bias means the model ran warm. Days = scored days behind the 1-day number.
| Model | 1-day | 3-day | 7-day | Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF AIFS (AI) | 0.8° (-0.2°) | 1.1° (-0.2°) | 1.5° (+0.5°) | 30 |
| DWD ICON | 1.2° (+0.7°) | 1.6° (+0.7°) | — | 30 |
| ECMWF IFS | 1.3° (+0.5°) | 1.6° (+0.5°) | 2.5° (+0.4°) | 30 |
| NOAA AIGFS (AI) | 1.4° (+0.6°) | 1.6° (+0.2°) | 2.4° (+0.5°) | 30 |
| UKMO (UK) | 1.5° (+1.5°) | 2.0° (+1.9°) | — | 30 |
| GEM (Canada) | 2.4° (+2.4°) | 1.5° (+0.1°) | 2.1° (+0.4°) | 30 |
| NOAA GFS | 3.2° (+3.2°) | 2.9° (+2.6°) | 3.8° (+3.8°) | 30 |
| NBM (US blend) | 1.1° (+0.5°) | 1.2° (+0.6°) | 1.4° (+0.3°) | 30 |
| Blended (bias-corrected) | 0.8° (-0.0°) | 1.2° (-0.0°) | 1.5° (+0.0°) | 30 |
Method, honestly
The Spread's New York point is the New York Central Park station (NYC), 8.4 km from downtown, used for both forecasts and verifications. Forecasts come from each model's actual archived runs via Open-Meteo's Previous Runs API — what the model said at the time, not a reconstruction. Truth is NYC observations — the station's own daily highs, a thermometer rather than a grid, and no correction applies: the thermometer is the truth outright. Rankings cover the models themselves; the two consensus products at the bottom of the table — NBM, which is itself a blend of models, and The Spread's own bias-corrected blend — are shown for comparison, never ranked or named "most accurate" here. The blend's corrections come from the same trailing window it is scored on (in-sample), so treat its score as a ceiling. A rolling 30-day window means these numbers move — that is the point.
Receipts — was the forecast right?
One page per settled date: what every model said as the day approached, what happened, and who was closest.
- Tue Sep 1 11 days out the models said 26–37; it hit 28. UKMO led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 3°C hot.
- Mon Aug 31 10 days out the models said 25–30; it hit 26. AIFS led (off 0.6°C); AIGFS ran 3°C cold.
- Sun Aug 30 9 days out the models said 23–29; it hit 26. ICON led (off 0.8°C); GEM ran 4°C hot.
- Sat Aug 29 8 days out the models said 24–29; it hit 24. AIFS led (off 0.7°C); GFS ran 4°C hot.
- Fri Aug 28 7 days out the models said 24–28; it hit 29. AIGFS led (off 0.4°C); GFS ran 3°C hot.
- Thu Aug 27 6 days out the models said 25–28; it hit 25. ECMWF led (off 1.2°C); GFS ran 4°C hot.
- Wed Aug 26 5 days out the models said 27–29; it hit 27. AIGFS led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 3°C hot.
- Tue Aug 25 4 days out the models said 25–27; it hit 26. AIGFS led (off 0.0°C); GEM ran 2°C hot.
- Mon Aug 24 3 days out the models said 24–29; it hit 26. AIFS led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 2°C hot.
- Tue Aug 18 13 days out the models said 27–30; it hit 29. ICON led (off 0.2°C); GEM ran 2°C hot.
- Mon Aug 17 13 days out the models said 19–31; it hit 27. ICON led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 3°C hot.
- Sun Aug 16 13 days out the models said 21–31; it hit 26. ICON led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 2°C hot.
- Sat Aug 15 13 days out the models said 27–28; it hit 28. AIGFS led (off 0.0°C); GFS ran 2°C hot.
- Fri Aug 14 13 days out the models said 25–27; it hit 29. UKMO led (off 0.3°C); GFS ran 2°C hot.
- Thu Aug 13 13 days out the models said 27–32; it hit 29. ECMWF led (off 0.0°C); AIGFS ran 2°C hot.
- Wed Aug 12 13 days out the models said 21–29; it hit 32. GFS led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 1°C cold.
- Tue Aug 11 13 days out the models said 24–31; it hit 31. ICON led (off 0.2°C); AIFS ran 1°C cold.
- Mon Aug 10 13 days out the models said 29–35; it hit 33. AIGFS led (off 0.0°C); ECMWF ran 2°C hot.
- Sun Aug 9 13 days out the models said 25–33; it hit 33. ECMWF led (off 0.3°C).
- Sat Aug 8 12 days out the models said 27–32; it hit 31. ICON led (off 0.3°C); AIGFS ran 2°C hot.
- Fri Aug 7 11 days out the models said 29–31; it hit 35. GFS led (off 0.7°C); ICON ran 4°C cold.
- Thu Aug 6 10 days out the models said 27–32; it hit 33. ECMWF led (off 0.4°C); GFS ran 2°C cold.
- Wed Aug 5 9 days out the models said 26–32; it hit 28. ICON led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 1°C cold.
- Tue Aug 4 8 days out the models said 28–29; it hit 29. GEM led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 3°C cold.
- Mon Aug 3 7 days out the models said 25–30; it hit 28. ECMWF led (off 0.3°C); GEM ran 3°C cold.
- Sun Aug 2 6 days out the models said 24–28; it hit 28. AIGFS led (off 0.1°C); ICON ran 1°C cold.
- Sat Aug 1 5 days out the models said 26–31; it hit 30. AIFS led (off 0.0°C); ICON ran 1°C cold.
- Fri Jul 31 4 days out the models said 26–31; it hit 29. ICON led (off 0.1°C).
- Thu Jul 30 3 days out the models said 24–27; it hit 25. AIFS led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 1°C hot.
Other cities
Atlanta, Georgia Berlin, State of Berlin Boston, Massachusetts Buffalo, New York Charlotte, North Carolina Chicago, Illinois Dallas, Texas Denver, Colorado Detroit, Michigan Houston, Texas London, England Los Angeles, California Miami, Florida Milan, Lombardy Minneapolis, Minnesota New Orleans, Louisiana Oklahoma City, Oklahoma Orlando, Florida Paris, Île-de-France Region Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Phoenix, Arizona Salt Lake City, Utah San Antonio, Texas San Diego, California San Francisco, California Seattle, Washington St. Louis, Missouri Tampa, Florida Washington, District of Columbia
The Spread — the forecast spread — is in closed beta. These verification pages are public while the rest is gated.