Was the forecast right for New York on Tue Sep 22?
New York, New York · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NYC observations
14 days out, 4 models put New York's Tue Sep 22 high anywhere from 17° to 22°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 18°. The day verified at 20° against the NYC observations — rain.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIGFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 22 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New York scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-07 | — | 25° | — | — | 24° | — | — | 24–25° |
| 14d · 2026-09-08 | 21° | 17° | 22° | — | 22° | — | — | 17–22° |
| 13d · 2026-09-09 | 27° | 19° | 19° | — | 25° | — | — | 19–27° |
| 12d · 2026-09-10 | 18° | 17° | 15° | — | 20° | — | — | 15–20° |
| 11d · 2026-09-11 | 19° | 20° | 23° | — | 21° | — | — | 19–23° |
| 10d · 2026-09-12 | 22° | 18° | 21° | — | 19° | — | — | 18–22° |
| 9d · 2026-09-13 | 20° | 19° | 28° | 24° | 19° | — | — | 19–28° |
| 8d · 2026-09-14 | 16° | 18° | 18° | 19° | 17° | — | — | 16–19° |
| 7d · 2026-09-15 | 18° | 18° | 19° | 18° | 19° | — | — | 18–19° |
| 6d · 2026-09-16 | 16° | 18° | 18° | 18° | 20° | 19° | 22° | 16–22° |
| 5d · 2026-09-17 | 17° | 16° | 17° | 18° | 15° | 20° | 19° | 15–20° |
| 4d · 2026-09-18 | 16° | 14° | 17° | 14° | 17° | 19° | 20° | 14–20° |
| 3d · 2026-09-19 | 18° | 15° | 18° | 18° | 18° | 19° | 20° | 15–20° |
| 2d · 2026-09-20 | 17° | 15° | 18° | 19° | 19° | 19° | 21° | 15–21° |
| 1d · 2026-09-21 | 17° | 16° | 18° | 19° | 19° | 18° | 20° | 16–20° |
| actual | 20° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New York — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NYC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.