Where the weather models disagree in New York
New York, Central Park station · daily high temperature in °C · the next 14 days · using data from 2026-10-18T12:50 UTC
The models are furthest apart on Fri Oct 30, where 4 of them put New York's high anywhere from 12° to 24° — ECMWF coldest, GFS hottest. That spread is greater than typical for forecasts with a 12-day lead at this location.
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The band, day by day
The shaded band is the lowest to the highest model high each day; the line is the median model. The band pales as models drop out with lead — 4 to 7 models across these days — so a narrower far end is fewer opinions, not more agreement.
Every day, every model
highs in °C · typical spread is the median spread for that lead over the last month here
How this page is built
The models are the independent global centres Open-Meteo serves for this point — GFS, ECMWF IFS, ICON, GEM, UKMO and the AIFS and AIGFS AI models — as The Spread recorded them at its last sweep. NBM and every other blend are left out: a consensus product hides the disagreement this page exists to show.
Each model publishes to a different horizon, which is why Models is counted per day rather than once. Beyond day 14 only two models remain and both are NOAA's, so the page stops there. Range is the lowest to the highest model high; Spread is the highest model high minus the lowest.
Typical spread is the median spread for that lead over the last month here, and needs ten days of forecasts at that lead before it is shown. It is there because a wide band ten days out is ordinary and the same band tomorrow is not — so nothing on this page is called a divergence; the comparison is against what this lead usually looks like at this location.
GEFS p10–p90 is one centre's ensemble, shown beside the band and never as it: it verifies a few degrees warm at every lead.
| Day | Models | Range | Spread | Typical spread | Coldest | Hottest | GEFS p10–p90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 18 | 7 | 14° to 16° | 2° | 2° | ECMWF 14° | GFS 16° | 14° to 16° |
| Mon Oct 19 | 7 | 17° to 18° | 1° | 3° | AIFS 17° | GEM 18° | 15° to 19° |
| Tue Oct 20 | 7 | 17° to 20° | 3° | 3° | GEM 17° | ICON 20° | 17° to 19° |
| Wed Oct 21 | 7 | 15° to 17° | 2° | 4° | AIGFS 15° | GFS 17° | 13° to 17° |
| Thu Oct 22 | 7 | 16° to 19° | 3° | 5° | GEM 16° | GFS 19° | 17° to 19° |
| Fri Oct 23 | 7 | 12° to 15° | 3° | 5° | ECMWF 12° | UKMO 15° | 13° to 17° |
| Sat Oct 24 | 6 | 11° to 16° | 5° | 5° | ECMWF 11° | AIFS 16° | 10° to 15° |
| Sun Oct 25 | 5 | 15° to 18° | 3° | 6° | GEM 15° | AIFS 18° | 12° to 16° |
| Mon Oct 26 | 5 | 17° to 21° | 4° | 5° | GEM 17° | AIGFS 21° | 14° to 19° |
| Tue Oct 27 | 4 | 13° to 19° | 6° | 6° | AIFS 13° | AIGFS 19° | 13° to 19° |
| Wed Oct 28 | 4 | 12° to 15° | 3° | 6° | ECMWF 12° | AIGFS 15° | 11° to 19° |
| Thu Oct 29 | 4 | 13° to 17° | 4° | 7° | ECMWF 13° | GFS 17° | 10° to 19° |
| Fri Oct 30 | 4 | 12° to 24° | 12° | 6° | ECMWF 12° | GFS 24° | 11° to 20° |
| Sat Oct 31 | 4 | 11° to 23° | 12° | 6° | ECMWF 11° | GFS 23° | 12° to 20° |
Other locations
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The Spread — the forecast spread — is in closed beta. These location pages are public while the rest is gated.