Where the weather models disagree in Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City, Will Rogers station · daily high temperature in °C · the next 14 days · using data from 2026-10-18T20:50 UTC
The models are furthest apart on Fri Oct 30, where 4 of them put Oklahoma City's high anywhere from 7° to 25° — AIGFS coldest, ECMWF hottest. That spread is much greater than typical for forecasts with a 12-day lead at this location.
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The band, day by day
The shaded band is the lowest to the highest model high each day; the line is the median model. The band pales as models drop out with lead — 4 to 7 models across these days — so a narrower far end is fewer opinions, not more agreement.
Every day, every model
highs in °C · typical spread is the median spread for that lead over the last month here
How this page is built
The models are the independent global centres Open-Meteo serves for this point — GFS, ECMWF IFS, ICON, GEM, UKMO and the AIFS and AIGFS AI models — as The Spread recorded them at its last sweep. NBM and every other blend are left out: a consensus product hides the disagreement this page exists to show.
Each model publishes to a different horizon, which is why Models is counted per day rather than once. Beyond day 14 only two models remain and both are NOAA's, so the page stops there. Range is the lowest to the highest model high; Spread is the highest model high minus the lowest.
Typical spread is the median spread for that lead over the last month here, and needs ten days of forecasts at that lead before it is shown. It is there because a wide band ten days out is ordinary and the same band tomorrow is not — so nothing on this page is called a divergence; the comparison is against what this lead usually looks like at this location.
GEFS p10–p90 is one centre's ensemble, shown beside the band and never as it: it verifies a few degrees warm at every lead.
| Day | Models | Range | Spread | Typical spread | Coldest | Hottest | GEFS p10–p90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 18 | 7 | 17° to 18° | 1° | 3° | ECMWF 17° | AIFS 18° | 17° to 19° |
| Mon Oct 19 | 7 | 19° to 21° | 2° | 3° | ECMWF 19° | AIFS 21° | 19° to 23° |
| Tue Oct 20 | 7 | 21° to 23° | 2° | 3° | ECMWF 21° | AIFS 23° | 20° to 24° |
| Wed Oct 21 | 7 | 23° to 25° | 2° | 3° | ICON 23° | UKMO 25° | 22° to 26° |
| Thu Oct 22 | 7 | 24° to 26° | 2° | 4° | GEM 24° | AIGFS 26° | 25° to 28° |
| Fri Oct 23 | 7 | 23° to 26° | 3° | 4° | GEM 23° | UKMO 26° | 24° to 27° |
| Sat Oct 24 | 7 | 22° to 25° | 3° | 5° | ECMWF 22° | AIFS 25° | 23° to 26° |
| Sun Oct 25 | 5 | 21° to 25° | 4° | 4° | GEM 21° | AIGFS 25° | 20° to 26° |
| Mon Oct 26 | 5 | 21° to 24° | 3° | 6° | GFS 21° | ECMWF 24° | 19° to 26° |
| Tue Oct 27 | 5 | 16° to 25° | 9° | 7° | GFS 16° | ECMWF 25° | 17° to 26° |
| Wed Oct 28 | 4 | 19° to 25° | 6° | 7° | GFS 19° | AIFS 25° | 13° to 24° |
| Thu Oct 29 | 4 | 14° to 23° | 9° | 7° | AIGFS 14° | ECMWF 23° | 16° to 24° |
| Fri Oct 30 | 4 | 7° to 25° | 18° | 7° | AIGFS 7° | ECMWF 25° | 17° to 24° |
| Sat Oct 31 | 4 | 12° to 21° | 9° | 7° | AIGFS 12° | GFS 21° | 17° to 25° |
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