Where the weather models disagree in Salt Lake City
Salt Lake City, SLC station · daily high temperature in °C · the next 14 days · using data from 2026-09-03T18:50 UTC
The models are furthest apart on Sat Sep 12, where 5 of them put Salt Lake City's high anywhere from 16° to 36° — GFS coldest, ECMWF hottest. That spread is much greater than average for forecasts with a 9-day lead at this location.
The band, day by day
The shaded band is the lowest to the highest model high each day; the line is the median model. The band pales as models drop out with lead — 4 to 7 models across these days — so a narrower far end is fewer opinions, not more agreement.
Every day, every model
highs in °C · typical spread is the median for that lead over the last month here
How this page is built
The models are the independent global centres Open-Meteo serves for this point — GFS, ECMWF IFS, ICON, GEM, UKMO and the AIFS and AIGFS AI models — as The Spread recorded them at its last sweep. NBM and every other blend are left out: a consensus product hides the disagreement this page exists to show.
Each model publishes to a different horizon, which is why Models is counted per day rather than once. Beyond day 14 only two models remain and both are NOAA's, so the page stops there. Range is the lowest to the highest model high; Spread is the difference between those two printed numbers.
Typical spread is the median spread for that lead over the last month of forecasts made here, shown only once ten days of them exist. It is there because a wide band ten days out is ordinary and the same band tomorrow is not — so nothing on this page is called a divergence; the comparison is against what this lead usually looks like at this location.
GEFS p10–p90 is one centre's ensemble, shown beside the band and never as it: it verifies a few degrees warm at every lead.
| Day | Models | Range | Spread | Typical spread | Coldest | Hottest | GEFS p10–p90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu Sep 3 | 7 | 29° to 30° | 1° | 3° | UKMO 29° | GFS 30° | 27° to 28° |
| Fri Sep 4 | 7 | 30° to 32° | 2° | 3° | UKMO 30° | AIGFS 32° | 28° to 30° |
| Sat Sep 5 | 7 | 31° to 32° | 1° | 4° | UKMO 31° | GFS 32° | 28° to 30° |
| Sun Sep 6 | 7 | 25° to 31° | 6° | 5° | GEM 25° | ECMWF 31° | 21° to 29° |
| Mon Sep 7 | 7 | 21° to 29° | 8° | 4° | ICON 21° | GFS 29° | 22° to 28° |
| Tue Sep 8 | 7 | 26° to 30° | 4° | 5° | ICON 26° | ECMWF 30° | 23° to 29° |
| Wed Sep 9 | 6 | 25° to 32° | 7° | 7° | GEM 25° | ECMWF 32° | 24° to 30° |
| Thu Sep 10 | 5 | 19° to 32° | 13° | 9° | GEM 19° | ECMWF 32° | 24° to 30° |
| Fri Sep 11 | 5 | 21° to 34° | 13° | 9° | GEM 21° | ECMWF 34° | 21° to 30° |
| Sat Sep 12 | 5 | 16° to 36° | 20° | 8° | GFS 16° | ECMWF 36° | 19° to 31° |
| Sun Sep 13 | 4 | 18° to 32° | 14° | 9° | GFS 18° | ECMWF 32° | 18° to 29° |
| Mon Sep 14 | 4 | 23° to 31° | 8° | 9° | GFS 23° | AIFS 31° | 21° to 28° |
| Tue Sep 15 | 4 | 24° to 33° | 9° | 9° | GFS 24° | AIFS 33° | 18° to 30° |
| Wed Sep 16 | 4 | 22° to 30° | 8° | 8° | ECMWF 22° | AIFS 30° | 17° to 30° |
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