Where the weather models disagree in Houston
Houston, Hobby station · daily high temperature in °C · the next 14 days · using data from 2026-09-03T12:50 UTC
The models are furthest apart on Mon Sep 14, where 4 of them put Houston's high anywhere from 29° to 37° — ECMWF coldest, AIGFS hottest. That spread is about average for forecasts with a 11-day lead at this location.
The band, day by day
The shaded band is the lowest to the highest model high each day; the line is the median model. The band pales as models drop out with lead — 4 to 7 models across these days — so a narrower far end is fewer opinions, not more agreement.
Every day, every model
highs in °C · typical spread is the median for that lead over the last month here
How this page is built
The models are the independent global centres Open-Meteo serves for this point — GFS, ECMWF IFS, ICON, GEM, UKMO and the AIFS and AIGFS AI models — as The Spread recorded them at its last sweep. NBM and every other blend are left out: a consensus product hides the disagreement this page exists to show.
Each model publishes to a different horizon, which is why Models is counted per day rather than once. Beyond day 14 only two models remain and both are NOAA's, so the page stops there. Range is the lowest to the highest model high; Spread is the difference between those two printed numbers.
Typical spread is the median spread for that lead over the last month of forecasts made here, shown only once ten days of them exist. It is there because a wide band ten days out is ordinary and the same band tomorrow is not — so nothing on this page is called a divergence; the comparison is against what this lead usually looks like at this location.
GEFS p10–p90 is one centre's ensemble, shown beside the band and never as it: it verifies a few degrees warm at every lead.
| Day | Models | Range | Spread | Typical spread | Coldest | Hottest | GEFS p10–p90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu Sep 3 | 7 | 28° to 34° | 6° | 3° | GFS 28° | GEM 34° | 28° to 32° |
| Fri Sep 4 | 7 | 31° to 34° | 3° | 3° | ECMWF 31° | GFS 34° | 32° to 36° |
| Sat Sep 5 | 7 | 31° to 36° | 5° | 4° | GFS 31° | UKMO 36° | 32° to 36° |
| Sun Sep 6 | 7 | 32° to 36° | 4° | 5° | ECMWF 32° | UKMO 36° | 34° to 37° |
| Mon Sep 7 | 7 | 31° to 37° | 6° | 5° | UKMO 31° | GFS 37° | 34° to 38° |
| Tue Sep 8 | 7 | 29° to 36° | 7° | 5° | UKMO 29° | GFS 36° | 35° to 38° |
| Wed Sep 9 | 6 | 30° to 36° | 6° | 6° | ECMWF 30° | GFS 36° | 33° to 37° |
| Thu Sep 10 | 5 | 31° to 38° | 7° | 4° | ECMWF 31° | GFS 38° | 33° to 37° |
| Fri Sep 11 | 5 | 32° to 37° | 5° | 4° | ECMWF 32° | GFS 37° | 33° to 37° |
| Sat Sep 12 | 4 | 33° to 35° | 2° | 3° | ECMWF 33° | AIGFS 35° | 34° to 38° |
| Sun Sep 13 | 4 | 30° to 35° | 5° | 4° | ECMWF 30° | AIGFS 35° | 34° to 37° |
| Mon Sep 14 | 4 | 29° to 37° | 8° | 6° | ECMWF 29° | AIGFS 37° | 34° to 37° |
| Tue Sep 15 | 4 | 30° to 37° | 7° | 6° | ECMWF 30° | GFS 37° | 34° to 38° |
| Wed Sep 16 | 4 | 30° to 38° | 8° | 6° | ECMWF 30° | GFS 38° | 33° to 37° |
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