Where the weather models disagree in Houston
Houston, Hobby station · daily high temperature in °F · the next 14 days · using data from 2026-09-03T12:50 UTC
The models are furthest apart on Tue Sep 8, where 7 of them put Houston's high anywhere from 84° to 97° — UKMO coldest, GFS hottest. That spread is greater than average for forecasts with a 5-day lead at this location.
The band, day by day
The shaded band is the lowest to the highest model high each day; the line is the median model. The band pales as models drop out with lead — 4 to 7 models across these days — so a narrower far end is fewer opinions, not more agreement.
Every day, every model
highs in °F · typical spread is the median for that lead over the last month here
How this page is built
The models are the independent global centres Open-Meteo serves for this point — GFS, ECMWF IFS, ICON, GEM, UKMO and the AIFS and AIGFS AI models — as The Spread recorded them at its last sweep. NBM and every other blend are left out: a consensus product hides the disagreement this page exists to show.
Each model publishes to a different horizon, which is why Models is counted per day rather than once. Beyond day 14 only two models remain and both are NOAA's, so the page stops there. Range is the lowest to the highest model high; Spread is the difference between those two printed numbers.
Typical spread is the median spread for that lead over the last month of forecasts made here, shown only once ten days of them exist. It is there because a wide band ten days out is ordinary and the same band tomorrow is not — so nothing on this page is called a divergence; the comparison is against what this lead usually looks like at this location.
GEFS p10–p90 is one centre's ensemble, shown beside the band and never as it: it verifies a few degrees warm at every lead.
| Day | Models | Range | Spread | Typical spread | Coldest | Hottest | GEFS p10–p90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu Sep 3 | 7 | 82° to 93° | 11° | 6° | GFS 82° | GEM 93° | 83° to 90° |
| Fri Sep 4 | 7 | 88° to 93° | 5° | 6° | ECMWF 88° | GFS 93° | 89° to 96° |
| Sat Sep 5 | 7 | 88° to 96° | 8° | 7° | GFS 88° | UKMO 96° | 89° to 97° |
| Sun Sep 6 | 7 | 89° to 98° | 9° | 8° | ECMWF 89° | UKMO 98° | 94° to 98° |
| Mon Sep 7 | 7 | 88° to 98° | 10° | 9° | UKMO 88° | GFS 98° | 94° to 100° |
| Tue Sep 8 | 7 | 84° to 97° | 13° | 10° | UKMO 84° | GFS 97° | 94° to 101° |
| Wed Sep 9 | 6 | 86° to 96° | 10° | 11° | ECMWF 86° | GFS 96° | 91° to 99° |
| Thu Sep 10 | 5 | 88° to 100° | 12° | 7° | ECMWF 88° | GFS 100° | 92° to 99° |
| Fri Sep 11 | 5 | 90° to 99° | 9° | 8° | ECMWF 90° | GFS 99° | 91° to 99° |
| Sat Sep 12 | 4 | 91° to 95° | 4° | 6° | ECMWF 91° | AIGFS 95° | 93° to 100° |
| Sun Sep 13 | 4 | 85° to 96° | 11° | 8° | ECMWF 85° | AIGFS 96° | 93° to 98° |
| Mon Sep 14 | 4 | 85° to 98° | 13° | 11° | ECMWF 85° | AIGFS 98° | 93° to 99° |
| Tue Sep 15 | 4 | 86° to 99° | 13° | 11° | ECMWF 86° | GFS 99° | 92° to 100° |
| Wed Sep 16 | 4 | 87° to 100° | 13° | 12° | ECMWF 87° | GFS 100° | 91° to 99° |
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