Where the weather models disagree in Houston
Houston, Hobby station · daily high temperature in °F · the next 14 days · using data from 2026-10-18T12:50 UTC
The models are furthest apart on Fri Oct 30, where 4 of them put Houston's high anywhere from 69° to 90° — AIFS coldest, GFS hottest. That spread is greater than typical for forecasts with a 12-day lead at this location.
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The band, day by day
The shaded band is the lowest to the highest model high each day; the line is the median model. The band pales as models drop out with lead — 4 to 7 models across these days — so a narrower far end is fewer opinions, not more agreement.
Every day, every model
highs in °F · typical spread is the median spread for that lead over the last month here
How this page is built
The models are the independent global centres Open-Meteo serves for this point — GFS, ECMWF IFS, ICON, GEM, UKMO and the AIFS and AIGFS AI models — as The Spread recorded them at its last sweep. NBM and every other blend are left out: a consensus product hides the disagreement this page exists to show.
Each model publishes to a different horizon, which is why Models is counted per day rather than once. Beyond day 14 only two models remain and both are NOAA's, so the page stops there. Range is the lowest to the highest model high; Spread is the highest model high minus the lowest.
Typical spread is the median spread for that lead over the last month here, and needs ten days of forecasts at that lead before it is shown. It is there because a wide band ten days out is ordinary and the same band tomorrow is not — so nothing on this page is called a divergence; the comparison is against what this lead usually looks like at this location.
GEFS p10–p90 is one centre's ensemble, shown beside the band and never as it: it verifies a few degrees warm at every lead.
| Day | Models | Range | Spread | Typical spread | Coldest | Hottest | GEFS p10–p90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 18 | 7 | 71° to 75° | 4° | 3° | AIGFS 71° | ICON 75° | 71° to 76° |
| Mon Oct 19 | 7 | 74° to 79° | 5° | 3° | AIGFS 74° | GEM 79° | 74° to 81° |
| Tue Oct 20 | 7 | 77° to 81° | 4° | 4° | AIGFS 77° | ECMWF 81° | 78° to 84° |
| Wed Oct 21 | 7 | 79° to 85° | 6° | 4° | UKMO 79° | GFS 85° | 79° to 86° |
| Thu Oct 22 | 7 | 80° to 86° | 6° | 5° | AIGFS 80° | ICON 86° | 81° to 88° |
| Fri Oct 23 | 7 | 81° to 86° | 5° | 5° | AIGFS 81° | ICON 86° | 82° to 87° |
| Sat Oct 24 | 6 | 82° to 84° | 2° | 7° | AIGFS 82° | GEM 84° | 81° to 85° |
| Sun Oct 25 | 5 | 79° to 82° | 3° | 6° | GFS 79° | AIFS 82° | 76° to 84° |
| Mon Oct 26 | 5 | 78° to 82° | 4° | 8° | AIGFS 78° | GEM 82° | 75° to 82° |
| Tue Oct 27 | 4 | 75° to 82° | 7° | 9° | AIGFS 75° | AIFS 82° | 71° to 84° |
| Wed Oct 28 | 4 | 75° to 85° | 10° | 9° | AIGFS 75° | GFS 85° | 67° to 84° |
| Thu Oct 29 | 4 | 76° to 90° | 14° | 8° | AIGFS 76° | GFS 90° | 67° to 84° |
| Fri Oct 30 | 4 | 69° to 90° | 21° | 12° | AIFS 69° | GFS 90° | 73° to 86° |
| Sat Oct 31 | 4 | 63° to 84° | 21° | 11° | AIFS 63° | GFS 84° | 77° to 87° |
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