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Which weather model is most accurate in Houston?

Forecast Highs Lows Rain Model accuracy

Houston, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · trailing 30 days, through Fri Oct 16

Every day, The Spread archives what each major weather model predicted for Houston at 1-, 3-, and 7-day leads, then scores those forecasts against the HOU observations once the day has happened. This page covers the trailing 30 days (2026-09-17 to 2026-10-16), for daily high temperature.

One day out, DWD ICON has been most accurate (typical miss 0.68°C); at three days, too close to call; at seven days, too close to call.

The largest standing bias belongs to ECMWF IFS, which has run cool by about 1.11°C at 1-day lead over this window.

Houston's full forecast, every model day by day, with the record on this page beside it. Request an invite; it's free during the beta.

The scoreboard

Typical miss (MAE) in °C with the bias in parentheses. Bias is the mean signed error of the predicted daily high — positive means the model ran warm. A model's high is the warmest of its hourly values and the station's is the warmest it got at any moment, so a model's high reads a little cool, and its low a little warm, even on a day it gets every hour right. ECMWF IFS gives a value only every 3 hours (every 6 past day 6), and ECMWF AIFS (AI) and NOAA AIGFS (AI) only every 6, with the hours between filled in, so their highs read cooler still and their lows warmer. In the forecasts scored here GFS also steps to every 3 hours from day 5, ICON and GEM from day 4, and UKMO from day 3, every 6 by day 6. Days = scored days behind the 1-day number.

Model 1-day 3-day 7-day Days
DWD ICON 0.7° (-0.1°) 1.0° (+0.3°) — 29
NOAA AIGFS (AI) 1.0° (-0.6°) 0.9° (-0.4°) 2.3° (-1.3°) 29
UKMO (UK) 1.0° (-0.5°) 1.2° (-0.6°) — 29
GEM (Canada) 1.1° (-0.3°) 1.3° (-0.5°) 2.7° (-1.9°) 29
NOAA GFS 1.1° (-0.8°) 1.6° (-0.6°) 2.4° (-0.8°) 29
ECMWF AIFS (AI) 1.2° (-0.8°) 1.1° (-0.8°) 1.8° (-1.1°) 29
ECMWF IFS 1.5° (-1.1°) 1.1° (-0.4°) 1.6° (-0.8°) 29

Method, honestly

The Spread's Houston point is the Hobby station (HOU), 16 km from downtown, used for both forecasts and verifications. Each forecast is the last one The Spread archived on the day it was made, the forecast the model was showing at the time, not a reconstruction. A day the station did not report is left out. Truth is the thermometer at Hobby (HOU) — the station's own daily highs, a thermometer rather than a grid, and no correction applies: the thermometer is the truth outright. Rankings cover the models themselves; consensus products such as the NBM, itself a blend of models, are not scored here. A rolling 30-day window means these numbers move — that is the point.

Receipts — was the forecast right?

One page per settled date: what every model said as the day approached, what happened, and who was closest.

  • Fri Oct 16 14 days out the models said 22–31; it hit 26. GEM led (off 0.2°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Thu Oct 15 14 days out the models said 23–31; it hit 32. AIGFS led (off 0.7°C); GFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Wed Oct 14 14 days out the models said 19–30; it hit 33. ICON led (off 0.3°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cool.
  • Tue Oct 13 14 days out the models said 22–30; it hit 33. GEM led (off 0.5°C); UKMO ran 2°C cool.
  • Mon Oct 12 14 days out the models said 24–31; it hit 32. ICON led (off 0.1°C); ECMWF ran 4°C cool.
  • Sun Oct 11 14 days out the models said 24–30; it hit 32. ICON led (off 0.0°C); GFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Sat Oct 10 14 days out the models said 26–32; it hit 30. GFS led (off 0.2°C); ECMWF ran 2°C warm.
  • Fri Oct 9 14 days out the models said 23–30; it hit 33. ICON led (off 0.4°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Thu Oct 8 14 days out the models said 21–27; it hit 33. ICON led (off 0.4°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cool.
  • Wed Oct 7 14 days out the models said 26–31; it hit 33. GEM led (off 0.4°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cool.
  • Tue Oct 6 13 days out the models said 25–30; it hit 33. ICON led (off 1.2°C); ECMWF ran 3°C cool.
  • Mon Oct 5 14 days out the models said 21–33; it hit 31. ICON led (off 0.5°C); GEM ran 3°C cool.
  • Sun Oct 4 14 days out the models said 21–36; it hit 26. AIGFS led (off 0.4°C); UKMO ran 3°C warm.
  • Sat Oct 3 14 days out the models said 24–31; it hit 32. ICON led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Fri Oct 2 14 days out the models said 31–34; it hit 33. UKMO led (off 0.6°C); GFS ran 3°C cool.
  • Thu Oct 1 14 days out the models said 30–36; it hit 33. GFS led (off 0.3°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cool.
  • Wed Sep 30 14 days out the models said 26–36; it hit 34. AIFS led (off 0.6°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cool.
  • Tue Sep 29 14 days out the models said 30–36; it hit 33. UKMO led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Mon Sep 28 13 days out the models said 30–34; it hit 33. GFS led (off 0.2°C).
  • Sun Sep 27 13 days out the models said 32–35; it hit 34. GFS led (off 0.5°C); AIFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Sat Sep 26 14 days out the models said 28–35; it hit 33. UKMO led (off 0.2°C); ECMWF ran 1°C cool.
  • Fri Sep 25 14 days out the models said 27–34; it hit 33. ICON led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 1°C cool.
  • Thu Sep 24 14 days out the models said 30–34; it hit 35. ICON led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 1°C cool.
  • Wed Sep 23 14 days out the models said 29–36; it hit 36. AIGFS led (off 0.3°C); UKMO ran 2°C cool.
  • Tue Sep 22 14 days out the models said 26–38; it hit 36. ICON led (off 0.1°C).
  • Mon Sep 21 14 days out the models said 31–33; it hit 34. AIFS led (off 0.0°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Sun Sep 20 14 days out the models said 25–38; it hit 34. GFS led (off 0.2°C); ECMWF ran 1°C cool.
  • Sat Sep 19 14 days out the models said 33–35; it hit 34. AIGFS led (off 0.0°C); GFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Fri Sep 18 14 days out the models said 29–37; it hit 34. UKMO led (off 0.1°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cool.
  • Thu Sep 17 14 days out the models said 32–36; it hit 31. GFS led (off 0.3°C); GEM ran 3°C warm.
  • Wed Sep 16 14 days out the models said 29–40; it hit 34. AIFS led (off 0.0°C); ICON ran 1°C warm.
  • Tue Sep 15 14 days out the models said 29–36; it hit 36. UKMO led (off 0.3°C); ECMWF ran 3°C cool.
  • Mon Sep 14 14 days out the models said 32–36; it hit 35. GEM led (off 0.0°C); ECMWF ran 4°C cool.
  • Sun Sep 13 14 days out the models said 31–38; it hit 34. ICON led (off 0.2°C); ECMWF ran 4°C cool.
  • Sat Sep 12 14 days out the models said 28–32; it hit 36. ICON led (off 0.1°C); ECMWF ran 3°C cool.
  • Fri Sep 11 14 days out the models said 28–37; it hit 34. GFS led (off 0.3°C); AIFS ran 4°C cool.
  • Thu Sep 10 14 days out the models said 32–38; it hit 33. AIGFS led (off 0.3°C); ECMWF ran 3°C cool.
  • Wed Sep 9 14 days out the models said 32–38; it hit 33. GEM led (off 0.0°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cool.
  • Tue Sep 8 14 days out the models said 30–37; it hit 34. GFS led (off 0.1°C); ECMWF ran 1°C cool.
  • Mon Sep 7 14 days out the models said 32–37; it hit 35. AIGFS led (off 0.9°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cool.
  • Sun Sep 6 14 days out the models said 32–41; it hit 33. AIFS led (off 0.2°C); GEM ran 4°C cool.
  • Sat Sep 5 14 days out the models said 31–40; it hit 33. GEM led (off 0.0°C); AIFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Fri Sep 4 13 days out the models said 32–39; it hit 34. GEM led (off 0.6°C); UKMO ran 3°C cool.
  • Thu Sep 3 12 days out the models said 34–38; it hit 34. GEM led (off 1.1°C); GFS ran 5°C cool.
  • Wed Sep 2 11 days out the models said 35–38; it hit 36. ICON led (off 1.8°C); AIFS ran 7°C cool.
  • Tue Sep 1 10 days out the models said 34–37; it hit 31. ICON led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 3°C warm.
  • Mon Aug 31 9 days out the models said 34–37; it hit 32. ECMWF led (off 2.4°C); GFS ran 4°C warm.
  • Sun Aug 30 8 days out the models said 33–37; it hit 36. GFS led (off 0.2°C).
  • Sat Aug 29 7 days out the models said 33–38; it hit 36. AIFS led (off 0.1°C).
  • Fri Aug 28 6 days out the models said 32–38; it hit 36. AIGFS led (off 0.1°C); ECMWF ran 3°C cool.
  • Thu Aug 27 5 days out the models said 34–39; it hit 36. ICON led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 3°C warm.
  • Wed Aug 26 4 days out the models said 37–40; it hit 37. UKMO led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Tue Aug 25 3 days out the models said 36–39; it hit 37. AIFS led (off 0.4°C); GFS ran 3°C warm.
  • Wed Aug 19 14 days out the models said 35–39; it hit 36. AIFS led (off 0.1°C); GFS ran 4°C warm.
  • Tue Aug 18 14 days out the models said 34–41; it hit 36. ECMWF led (off 0.0°C); GEM ran 1°C warm.
  • Mon Aug 17 14 days out the models said 35–38; it hit 37. ECMWF led (off 0.2°C); AIFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Sun Aug 16 14 days out the models said 35–40; it hit 36. AIGFS led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Sat Aug 15 14 days out the models said 35–38; it hit 36. AIFS led (off 0.3°C); ICON ran 2°C warm.
  • Fri Aug 14 14 days out the models said 36–39; it hit 34. GFS led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 2°C warm.
  • Thu Aug 13 14 days out the models said 35–40; it hit 36. UKMO led (off 0.2°C); ECMWF ran 2°C cool.
  • Wed Aug 12 14 days out the models said 34–41; it hit 34. AIFS led (off 0.4°C); ICON ran 2°C warm.
  • Tue Aug 11 14 days out the models said 34–39; it hit 32. GFS led (off 0.9°C); GEM ran 4°C warm.
  • Mon Aug 10 14 days out the models said 34–39; it hit 31. AIFS led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 3°C warm.
  • Sun Aug 9 14 days out the models said 33–38; it hit 32. ECMWF led (off 0.8°C); UKMO ran 3°C warm.
  • Sat Aug 8 13 days out the models said 32–38; it hit 35. GFS led (off 0.1°C); GEM ran 2°C cool.
  • Fri Aug 7 12 days out the models said 32–38; it hit 34. ICON led (off 0.4°C); AIGFS ran 2°C warm.
  • Thu Aug 6 11 days out the models said 30–39; it hit 33. AIFS led (off 1.4°C); AIGFS ran 4°C warm.
  • Wed Aug 5 10 days out the models said 31–38; it hit 35. GFS led (off 0.2°C); UKMO ran 1°C warm.
  • Tue Aug 4 9 days out the models said 30–37; it hit 36. ICON led (off 0.0°C); UKMO ran 1°C cool.
  • Mon Aug 3 8 days out the models said 30–35; it hit 37. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Sun Aug 2 7 days out the models said 32–38; it hit 38. UKMO led (off 0.2°C); AIFS ran 3°C cool.
  • Sat Aug 1 6 days out the models said 34–38; it hit 36. AIGFS led (off 0.1°C); UKMO ran 3°C warm.
  • Fri Jul 31 5 days out the models said 35–38; it hit 36. ECMWF led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 2°C cool.
  • Thu Jul 30 4 days out the models said 35–38; it hit 36. UKMO led (off 0.0°C); AIFS ran 2°C cool.

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