Was the forecast right for Houston on Tue Sep 1?
Houston, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the HOU observations
10 days out, 4 models put Houston's Tue Sep 1 high anywhere from 34° to 37°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 32°. The day verified at 31° against the HOU observations, with 0.3 mm of precipitation — drizzle.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.1°. GFS ran 3° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Houston scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10d · 2026-08-22 | 34° | 37° | 35° | — | 37° | — | — | 34–37° |
| 9d · 2026-08-23 | 34° | 36° | 33° | 35° | 37° | — | — | 33–37° |
| 8d · 2026-08-24 | 36° | 36° | 33° | 36° | 36° | — | — | 33–36° |
| 7d · 2026-08-25 | 35° | 37° | 31° | 34° | 36° | — | — | 31–37° |
| 6d · 2026-08-26 | 35° | 34° | 34° | 33° | 35° | 33° | 34° | 33–35° |
| 5d · 2026-08-27 | 35° | 36° | 32° | 34° | 37° | 35° | 33° | 32–37° |
| 4d · 2026-08-28 | 35° | 35° | 33° | 33° | 37° | 33° | 33° | 33–37° |
| 3d · 2026-08-29 | 33° | 33° | 30° | 32° | 35° | 32° | 34° | 30–35° |
| 2d · 2026-08-30 | 31° | 30° | 32° | 35° | 33° | 33° | 31° | 30–35° |
| 1d · 2026-08-31 | 28° | 32° | 33° | 32° | 33° | 30° | 30° | 28–33° |
| actual | 31° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Houston — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the HOU observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.